Crypto Twitter is awash with claims that “everyone is buying Bitcoin,” from Michael Saylor and BlackRock to entire countries and even banks.
However, despite the story of accumulation, the price of Bitcoin has fallen significantly, falling below key levels as ETF flows turned negative.
The discrepancy between the bullish headlines and falling prices highlights an important point. It's about who's who in a market driven by liquidity and marginal flows. actually When you buy is far more important than who says so.
Bitcoin fell to $106,400 as spot ETF flows turned negative for the fourth consecutive session. The change comes as BlackRock's IBIT recorded a total of $714.8 million in redemptions over the past four days, losing a key source of daily demand rights as the widely-watched axis of the cycle crumbled.
Outflows of $88.1 million, $290.9 million, $149.3 million and $186.5 million matched the breakdown, according to Farside Investors. They forced authorized participants to sell their stocks, releasing them into the market in exchange for the underlying Bitcoin.
Therefore, the net flow has reversed. As issue creation slows and redemptions increase across the U.S. spot ETF complex, daily bids that helped absorb volatility will become a source of supply.
In mid-October, net outflows increased across digital asset funds as Bitcoin struggled to stay above $106,400. Although there was a brief inflow day at the end of the month, recent operations returned to the red, a pattern consistent with the IBIT results captured above.
Mechanical effects are important because ETF flows are converted to spot purchases and their timing coincides with breaks in levels that many traders use to distinguish late-cycle pullbacks from trend resumptions.
Derivatives added pressure.
CME three-month futures premiums fell to about 4% to 5% annually in the second half of the year, curtailing the carry trade incentive that draws institutional investor-based demand into the rally.
At the same time, funding for perpetual swaps has temporarily weakened or turned negative, and the decline is accelerating as longs are de-risked and liquidated.
In such circumstances, slow and deliberate accumulation of spot by companies and government agencies cannot offset the forced de-leveraging and redemption of regulated products that directly lead to spot sales.
Macro didn't make the road easier. The U.S. dollar index rebounded toward the 98-100 area in November after a weak first half, but real interest rates remain subdued, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near 4.1%.
A strong dollar and tight real yields tend to compress global liquidity and weigh on long-term risks, and Bitcoin continues to react to these impulses on the tactical horizon. When flows are mostly flat, the dollar often determines whether the rebound sustains or weakens.
The supply narrative also persists. Mt Gox's rebuilding schedule has been extended again until October 31, 2026, following a partial distribution earlier this year. This keeps the focus on recurring overhangs, even if the actual sales are staggered.
Regular updates of trustees and wallet movements repeatedly strengthen the risk tolerance for rebounds. The minor remains a separate valve.
Due in part to economic conditions following the halving, hash prices have remained near cycle lows compared to the spring surge. This background creates a continued incentive to monetize the treasury in days of stress, which may be consistent with soft funding that exerts procyclical pressure.
A cycle frame connects these parts.
I recently called $126,000 as a cycle high and $106,400 as a bull bear pivot.
Prices really lost their pivot as ETF bids turned net short, but basis remained subdued and funding cooled.
Interestingly, common on-chain and cycle monitors such as 2-year MA Multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, and RHODL failed to reach euphoria this cycle, even near the highs. As support for the flow fades, the metric has already begun to slide towards dispersion and mean reversion.
this It was done This means that this cycle's bull market will be extended. Alternatively, it could mean a reduction in revenue when compared to previous cycle transitions.
These tools are not standalone timing devices. Still, coinciding with modulations in daily flows or macro-based hardening, traders tend to extract liquidity, which amplifies the impact of incremental selling.
Why are prices falling if BlackRock, a company, or a country is buying? Flow mathematics provides a direct response.
Nation-state purchases are temporary and small compared to day-to-day sales, and corporate finances operate on idiosyncratic schedules.
Banks often facilitate customer activity rather than deploying balance sheet risk on a day-to-day basis. Issuers that typically issue stock do redemptions instead, and there is no one involved to offset the weeks when funding is at or below zero and dollar companies accrue. Marginal Seller dominates the tape in that mix.
The near-term path depends on whether spot creation occurs again and the fundamentals expand. If we continue to see net outflow days from the largest U.S. spot ETFs, particularly IBIT and FBTC, the CME basis locks in near or below 5% annually, and funding becomes flat to negative, the market will remain in the distribution phase.
In this setup, a failure to recover $106,400 would make $100,000 a battleground, opening up another red session in the mid-to-high $90,000 range, especially if macros remain tight.
A more neutral outcome, with volatile but small flows, the basis stable in the 5-7% zone, and the dollar in a range around $97-100, argues for a burnout between $100,000 and $106,000 while liquidity recovers.
The upside case would require multi-day net creation across the complex to return to the $300-800 million range, based on an 8-10%+ appreciation and dollar weakness.
This combination could allow for a retest of $110,000-$115,000 if flows persist, restarting the debate over the top of the cycle.
One way to track the state of play is to focus on daily issuer-level flows and then overlay derivatives and macroeconomic factors.
How to tell if the Bitcoin bull market is still going strong
- ETF flows (far-side data): lasts for several days creation Issuance from large issuers such as BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC suggests a resurgence in demand. continuation redemption Meanwhile, flat printing confirms that bids have turned into supplies.
- Fund flow (CoinShares report): Broad inflows across digital asset funds indicate that financial institutions are reverting to risk, especially when led by Bitcoin. Continued outflows and concentration in defensive alternatives indicate capital retreat.
- Leverage terms (CME base and financing): Rising basis (approximately 7-8%+ per annum) and aggressive, stable funding suggest an appetite for directional risk typical of active bull phases. A flat or negative setting means deleveraging and distribution.
- Macro liquidity (DXY and 10-year yield): Weak dollar (DXY)
- Mining supply pressure (hash price trend): Rising hash prices and stable or declining miner sales suggest that the market is comfortable absorbing new supply and is exhibiting bullish behavior. A collapse in hash prices or a spike in miner transfers to exchanges often indicate stress points within an uptrend.
Just as Bitcoin lost its bearings, spot ETF bidding turned into a persistent net sell over the past four business days. With CME basis subdued and funding soft, marginal prices were driven by risk aversion rather than push buying.
A strong USD and solid real yields capped a flow-driven break rather than a referendum on long-term adoption. This will remain in the distribution and digest stage of the broader cycle until the daily works return and the $106,400 has been collected.
| IBIT flow day | Net flows (millions of USD) |
|---|---|
| October 29th | -88.1 |
| October 30th | -290.9 |
| October 31st | -149.3 |
| November 3rd | -186.5 |
| total | -714.8 |
Finally, unless the historical Bitcoin cycle pattern is disrupted by corporate treasuries and ETF inflows, Father Time has already spoken.
If Bitcoin hits a new all-time high by the end of the year or 2026, it will be a new all-time high.
