Different observation points suggest that Bitcoin Upward Cycle (BTC), which began more than two years ago, is nearing the end.
“The current cycle is already practically exhausting,” said director of asset manager Narwina, Richard Durant. In his report on this point, he points it out. Current price weakness is related to macroeconomic conditions.
In particular, the US import tax imposed by President Donald Trump has affected the market. While Bitcoin prices were filmed after the January presidential election, he fell from Trump's assumption a few weeks before the stock collapse.
In the para, The real risk of falling continues Prices Bitcoin. He acknowledges that the institution's adoption narrative is still valid, but he does not believe he will have a major impact on the short term.
“Bitcoin is likely to move in the same direction as what we do. I think there is more potential unless tariffs change suddenly,” the expert says.
It emphasizes that macroeconomic factors are primarily in the cryptocurrency market. “This can be seen in the close relationship between Bitcoin and the stock market over the last few months, and the divergence between BTC and gold,” he said as the following graph shows.
He added that Tariffs are an important concern“Increasing the risk of a recession and reducing the possibility of more flexible monetary policy in the short term.”
Next, the increase in Japan's inflation and the resulting hardening of monetary policy is Carrying trade From the yen,” he added. Carrying trade This is an investment strategy consisting of borrowing money at low interest to invest in assets at higher interest rates.
Japan's underlying inflation was 3% in December, with official short-term interest rates of around 0.5%, which “could rise significantly before inflation is managed,” he warned. However, he states that the central bank “could be cautious about even more monetary policy given the obstacles that tariffs can rely on exports and create for the Japanese economy.”
Bitcoin market has mixed signs
Despite the circumstances, Durant argues that Donald Trump's return to president “creates an environment that is beneficial to cryptocurrency.” His interest in the market unlocks greater acceptance of the industry by the Bags and Securities Commission (SEC) and expectations for the Treasury purchase of Bitcoin.
But he warned of it The executive order to establish a “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” turned out to be an early sales strategy rather. Furthermore, this is capitalized with the BTC that the government already has. And while more progress could occur, he said, “This announcement appears to be less positive than most investors that are likely to be expected.”
Meanwhile, the balance of Bitcoin in centralized exchange has been declining since November, but has remained relatively stable for the past two months. This metric reduction is generally considered a sign of bullishness, Durant shows. However, it warns that other factors indicate possible biscism.
It emphasizes that time has passed since the last Bitcoin operation and the average price for the last negotiation is at a high level. This is a classic pattern at the end of the upward marketthese metrics have yet to reach the typical point of peaks, but he mentions.
This occurs while the amount of “Bitcoin” searches on Google continues to decline, but in his opinion, it shows that “speculative enthusiasm is diminishing.” This is another “matching indicator” that can be rebound if Bitcoin price is present.
Durant also showed that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the world's most famous company known for issuing bonds to invest in such assets, is “a non-aggressive buyer in recent months.” Furthermore, he revealed it Your purchase is not that beneficial for Bitcoin in the short termconsidering the environment of macroeconomic uncertainty and the decline in investors' profits on our debts.
However, as shown below, Strategic (MSTR) Action continues to cite BTC from the perspective of last year's actions. This “indicating that Bitcoin's feelings remain very positive,” he says.
However, the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, is planning to cut interest rates for the year, which could contribute to increased liquidity. As a result, Bitcoin may be preferred. However, if inflation that tariffs allow for increased, monetary policy could remain strengthened.
According to Durant, BTC will drop below USD 50,000 and may get new records
In this scenario, trust Durant It's still reasonable to go up from BTC to $100,000-150,000 (USD) Minimum 35,000 to 55,000 cycle stop. However, due to current circumstances, we do not foresee such an increase in the short term.
“So, if prices are below US$50,000 and monetary policy is being significantly eased, I will probably be excited again with Bitcoin,” he clarifies. Otherwise, according to your vision, you can finish the upward cycle.
Meanwhile, other experts believe that BTC will not fall at up to US$69,000 in the previous cycle ended in 2021, while the bullish trend could continue.
From other more pessimistic eyes, economist Juan Ramon Laro says, “This is the worst case scenario” on a macroeconomic level. This is based on the “zero commercial deficit” rather than the fact that Trump does not want to reach an agreement with a “zero tariff” country. “It's unrealistic and impossible,” he says, inducing the possibility of a recession.
74,000 US$ Bitcoin price, lowest in 4 months. This is a 32% setback of the historic up to US$109,000 reached January on President Trump's assumption date.
This price drop reflects more weaknesses in the market in the midst of this voltage environment. In this sense, the future of the market for the coming months appears to remain prominent due to Trump's actions on tariff policy.
