Trump Coin rises 73% in dinner hype, but July unlock can tell a very different story

Trump Coin has raised 73% in the excitement of the gala dinner, but will the holders face a more sudden risk than they are aware of when supplies begin to lift in July?

Playing Coin Stages a Wonderful Comeback

Trump-themed meme coin, the official Trump (Trump), has attracted the attention of the market after having amazing rallying over the past few days.

The token, released in January 2025 at Solana (SoL), surged from around $7.54 to $15.47 on April 23, settling at nearly $13.20 on April 25.

Playing Coin Price Chart | Source: crypto.news

Trump has won over 73% in the past week, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.82 billion, making it the most performant asset of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

Recent gatherings have continued to be volatile for several months. Advances President Trump's January 20th inauguration, Trump's coins surged to an all-time high of $75.35.

Sentiment cooled sharply after the event, and by April 7th the token had dropped to $7.14. Even after the recent rebound, Trump is trading below 83% of the peak.

The most immediate catalyst behind the latest gathering appeared on April 23rd. It has been announced that Trump's top 220 owners will be invited to an official dinner with President Donald Trump at Trump National Golf Club in Washington, DC.

Following the announcement, X's technical analyst Amcrypto observed a surge in short liquidation and whale-driven purchases, driving price increases.

At the same time, the unlocked and scheduled unlocking of 40 million new card tokens has been postponed until the 90th. This delay helped keep the circular supply at 200 million tokens, reducing concerns about the sudden influx of new supplies that caused sell.

A wider macro environment also provided a favorable background. As we approached the $100,000 mark, new enthusiasm around Bitcoin (BTC) has contributed to a broader appetite for high-risk assets, including Meme Tokens.

At the time of writing, BTC has traded over $94,000, earning over 11% in the last seven days.

Dinner with Trump becomes Crypto's hottest ticket

A dinner promise with the 47th US president added a high-voltage plot to an already rare crypto rallies.

In the official announcement, the Trump Token team announced what they called the “the most exclusive invitation in the world” and offered an official gala dinner to the top 220 owners of Memecoin.

The event is scheduled for May 22 at Trump National Golf Club in Washington, DC, and includes additional perks for the top 25 participants, including a private VIP reception and a guided tour of the White House.

According to official conditions, eligibility is determined by the average average of the time between April 23rd and May 12th. This means that not only do the top 220 wallet addresses hold large amounts of tokens, but they also need to maintain their holdings for the duration.

Eligibility requires that you pass background checks and not from jurisdiction flagged under the global money laundering protocol, and guests are not permitted.

The terms of the situation make it clear that while President Trump is expected to be present, his presence is not guaranteed. In such cases, eligible attendees will instead receive a limited Trump-themed, Trump-themed Impossible Token (NFT) as compensation.

The current leaderboard for Token Holder is updated in real time through the project's official portal. As of April 25th, the top spot belongs to a cold wallet labeled “Sun” and is reportedly associated with Justin Sun, the founder of the Tron (TRX) blockchain.

His shares holds exceed 1.17 million tokens, valued at over $14 million. Sun's involvement coincides with previous support for ProTrump's pro-crypto initiative, including his advisory role in the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial Debt Project.

The second and third positions are held by the wallet under the identifiers “Case” and “MECO” respectively. Meco holds more tokens than cases, but it ranks lower as the project uses time-weighted metrics, giving it more weight to its long-term holdings than its recent accumulation.

Blockchain activity suggests interest in tokens skyrocketed shortly after the event was announced. Data from Analytics Firm Nansen shows that the top 100 wallets have accumulated around 940,000 additional tokens within an hour of the post.

Trump's entities profit from transactions, not pumps

The sharp rise in Trump prices is supported by token designs that intentionally limit supply and concentrate control between the two Trump entities.

The total supply of tokens is covered by 1 billion. Of this, only 200 million tokens are currently in circulation, but the remaining 800 million tokens are locked, and will gradually unlock them over three years.

This structure aims to avoid sudden, large-scale sales that often destabilize meme tokens in a loosely managed supply model.

According to the official project documents, the first unlock on April 18 was set to release 40 million tokens, followed by daily issuance of 205,480 tokens until July 18th.

However, soon after the announcement of the Trump Gala dinner, the team unlocked for another 90 days. The move helped keep circulating supply at 200 million tokens, helping to reduce potential sales pressures, and supported the ongoing price rally.

At current market prices, the fully diluted valuation of Trump Coins calculated across all 1 billion tokens is approximately $133.5 billion. With only 20% of the supply operating in the market, the actual market capitalization is much lower at around $2.67 billion.

Ownership of the locked 800 million tokens is concentrated between CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight LLC. Both entities are linked to the Trump organization and together control 80% of the token supply.

Typically, such heavy insider controls will raise concerns about future dumping. However, structural and reputational factors act as deterrents.

Holdings are subject to multi-year lockups, and early sales could lead to a backlash from both the Trump community and the broader crypto investors.

Rather than relying on direct token sales, affiliated entities generate income through trading activities. At launch, they seeds 100 million tokens, equivalent to 10% of their total supply, into Meteora's liquidity pool, a decentralized exchange of Solana, where Trump is actively trading.

This liquidity pool allows buyers and sellers to trade smoothly without slipping at large prices, while simultaneously generating liquidity provider fees. Each Meteora trade costs a fee, some of which flows into a wallet controlled by the battle between CIC Digital and Fight Fight.

This model has proven to be extremely profitable. Estimates from Reuters show that as of January 30, Trump wallets alone had already generated between $86 million and $100 million.

Following the announcement of dinner on April 23, trading activity surged even further, bringing an additional $1.6 million fee within one 24-hour window.

The Washington Post has brought total revenue from Trump Coin activities to approximately $312 million from token sales and $41 million from trading fees since its inception.

The exact revenues of CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight remain private, but their role as major liquidity providers suggests they will acquire a large portion of these benefits.

What do you expect next?

The short-term momentum of the Trump token appears to be closely linked to two factors: a countdown to the May 22nd gala event and a 90-day delay in unlocking the token.

As long as the circular supply remains limited and the gala dinner continues to act as a coveted status symbol within the community, speculative interest around the tokens can grow.

However, the market dynamics could change as the event ends and the unlock window approaches in July. The introduction of a fresh token supply could put downward pressure on prices, especially if trading volumes decrease after gala-driven hype fades.

Newcomers drawn by recent rally should recognize that the current market capitalization of Trump Tokens reflects small distribution rather than full public distribution. Maintaining disciplined risk management is important for existing holders.

As event-driven catalysts lose influence, fundamental questions about long-term sustainability are expected to resurface, and positioning accordingly can make the difference between protecting profits and facing a sudden drawdown.