Bitcoin's encryption resilience is facing new questions after Google researchers suggested that quantum computers could break encryption much faster than expected.
Craig Gidney, a leading Google quantum computing researcher, has published new research showing that the hardware requirements for breaking 2048-bit RSA encryption, a similarly important mathematical component of Bitcoin, have been significantly reduced.
Gidney noted that his previous estimates placed the threshold at 20 million raucous Qubits, but the new forecast requires under 1 million.
Reduced computational load indicates a major leap in quantum power, but can take days rather than hours.
Google researchers attribute the advancements to enhanced more sophisticated quantum algorithms and error correction techniques that reduce the number of physical qubits needed by encoding logic kits more efficiently.
Bitcoin quantum computing vulnerability
The revelation arrives as concerns increase at the pace of quantum computing development. Last year, Google introduced Willow Chip. WillowChip is a next-generation quantum processor that more people believe have brought real-world threats closer to digital security than previously expected.
In response, major financial institutions are updating their disclosures. BlackRock, for example, recently flagged Quantum Computing as an important risk to the Bitcoin ETF product IBIT.
According to the company:
“If quantum computing technology can increase its capabilities compared to the capacity of today's major quantum computers, it could potentially undermine the viability of many cryptographic algorithms used across the world's information technology infrastructure, including encryption algorithms used for digital assets such as Bitcoin.”
This change reflects the growing awareness that technical breakthroughs can challenge the basic encryption of Bitcoin earlier than expected.
Despite concerns, some experts believe that the crypto sector still has time to adapt to potential risks.
Today's logical Quit demos are top of the top in dozens (e.g. 12 logical kibbs in Quantinuum). The numbers in Gidney's 1,000,000 kit are about physical (voodl) Qubits, not logical. We are three digits apart on pure kibit counts and need a breakthrough in the main error rate.
Even physical diet goals are likely to be 8-12 years from now, with a true million and a typical kit machine decades away.
| Major Platforms (Universal Gate Base) | Physical Qubits | Note |
|---|---|---|
| IBM “Condor” (superconductivity) | 1,121 | First >1 k-qubit chip, still noisy |
| Atomic computing (neutral atom) | > 1,000 | The prototype was announced in March 2025 |
| Google “Willow” (Superconductivity) | 105 | Record low error rates and cross QEC “threshold” |
| Quantinuum H2 (Trap Ion) | 56 | High Fidelity Ion Trap; Microsoft built it using it 12 logical cubits |
| D-Wave Advantage2 (Anealer) | 1,200 | Unable to run Shor algorithms, not a universal machine |
Meanwhile, Bitcoin analyst Fred Kruger believes the emergence of a “quantum-resistant” version of Top Crypto is inevitable.
He expects the network to be split between the newly fortified Bitcoin and the legacy version, similar to the way Ethereum was split between ETH and Ethereum Classic.
He said:
“There are frequent forks: “Quantum-resistant Bitcoin (QRB)” and “Bitcoin Classic.” Big money recognizes the QRB and pushes it.
Still, if Bitcoin becomes vulnerable in eight years, the network won't be long before adopting quantum resistance upgrades.
