Bitcoin (BTC) remains strong and let's take a look at the new maximum. After the last record close to USD 112,000 per currency, digital assets are expected to continue to rise due to a variety of factors.
BTC's latest historic largest (ATH) was recorded last week, with the currency experiencing its third record rupture in this upward cycle. Regularly, new prices and area stages Discovery involves a sales periodespecially for the opportunity to benefit. However, this does not mean putting a brake on the upward trend.
So far, BTC has been backed up to US$107,000, so it closely follows the training pattern of ATH. However, this chart from an on-chain analytics company has not lost its bullish mass, as it shows GlassNode.
Due to current performance, BTC surpasses GlassNode's highlights, especially in the context of uncertainty, pressure and geopolitical tensions.
Comparing the price of Bitcoin with previous cycles, for the previous cycle, A significant similarity of the structure is shown. This means that the total current market for Bitcoin is much larger than in previous cycles. The following graphics, also provided by the aforementioned BTC data company, presents index performance from the relative minimum of the cycle.
For GlassNode, this action is a “amazing feat.” It's much higher today than in the previous cycle. “This suggests that Bitcoin's demand scale follows the rhythm of asset growth,” the company said.
Knowing the demand is not very complicated, as accumulation patterns can be assessed in a variety of wallet sizes. GlassNode has identified a new ATH They tend to encourage a significant increase in accumulation. This increases the accumulation trend score to a high of 1.0.
In particular, the company says high accumulation pressures have been observed between the historic maximums of US$70,000 and $107,000, which were established in March and November 2024. This shows that investors follow the trend of buying at scale When the market enters the realm of price discovery, Similarly, it demonstrates the benefits of existing holders to obtain benefits at a higher price.
It is essentially “The Mentality of the Herd”GlassNode shows that market participants “converge around key levels and events such as asraptors.”
What the analyst company points out is consistent with the vision of analyst Willie Wu. In his opinion, investors navigate between euphoria and uncertainty. Duality that promotes significant volatilitythere is a significant movement in the price of assets.
Another case was seen at USD 69,000 in 2021, with strong build-up pressures seen after reaching that record. It marked the roof of the cycle It preceded the bear markets in 2022 and 2023.
According to GlassNode, robust accumulation is generally a constructive signal, but it is important to recognize it. Consensus behavior is not always a reliable indicator of future addressesand in fact, it could be the opposite.
In any case, accumulation in the BTC market is beginning to notice a wide variety of investors. A sense of fear of staying outside (FOMO) exists between whales, retailers, and institutions that bet as reserve and savings assets to BTC. Marks the potential bullish impulses of the currency Because they start to accumulate it and remove it from the offer.
The following graph provided by GlassNode shows the points where BTC accumulation has increased over the years.
Markets may enter the happiness stage
When the BTC market returns to its price discovery period, it is just Investors – Unrelated profits are rising. And as long as these profitability grows, we usually expect a rebound in sales pressure as a result.
Generally, as prices rise, higher demand is required on the buyer side to absorb the diversified currency and to allow the market to maintain its bullish impulse.
The following GlassNode graph shows an increase in unrealized profits in Bitcoin.
Unrealized relative profit metrics serve as a tool to measure the magnitude of benefits maintained across the market. Currently, this metric is at a historically aligned level Entering the market into the stage of euphoria.
These environments They are usually characterized by greater volatilityand GlassNode says that it tends to be shorter periods, as only 16% of the daily negotiations see the profits of paper above this level.
The company had already predicted there was still room for a price rise for BTC, despite touching on the historic maximum. This is because even if profits were present, they were not as powerful enough to reduce impulses from the Bitcoin Rally.
As seen through the following graph on unmade net profit/loss on volatility, when the price of BTC reached the historic maximum of $109,000, there was a significant rebound in the acquisition of profits, with only 14.4% of the number of days to register a higher value. This suggests benefits It has increased, but has not yet reached an extreme level.
The same reflects the SOPR metric shown below, which evaluates the average multiple of profits or losses blocked by investors who use coins in the chain. According to this data, ATH's recent breaks have resulted in a significant increase in blocked profits, The average currency captures a gain of +16%.
Furthermore, it suggests that less than 8% of negotiation dates are more profitable and ongoing for investors A major transition towards benefits activities.
However, GlassNode said that “we haven't reached the true euphoric heights observed during major previous price formations.”
Increase replacement use
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exchanges, particularly centralized exchanges, have remained the main sites of trade and speculation. It is estimated during that time USD 4,000 million and USD 8,000 million will in and out of these platforms According to chain data, it's every day.
The index of deposits and removal to the exchange indicates an increase in exchange volume learning from the historical maximum of $109,000, which was established in early 2025. And he continues to rise as the market recovers.
So far, roughly 33% of the total volumes created on the Bitcoin network are currently interacting with centralized exchange, as reflected in the following GlassNode graph.
This shows a pronounced rebound in investor demand and commercial activity, consistent with entry into the market In a new stage of price discoveryI'll comment to the analytics company.
GlassNode says each Bitcoin deposited in exchange earns a profit of USD 9,300, but those who move with losses They only get an average loss of 780 USDas seen in this graph:
This difference indicates that current BTC spending behavior is driven by profits. A clear reflection of the improvement in the sense of Bitcoin investors.
Meanwhile, the loss rate in the mid-stock market shows that unrealized profits for Bitcoin investors are on average 12 times the loss, reaching extreme levels similar to those observed at the most intense stages of the bull market in the past, as shown below.
This suggests that the market is in the euphoric phase Characterized by excessive optimism and speculationsigns warning about the possibility of overheating and high risk of correction, along with other metrics.
This example is the fear and greedy indicators of the Bitcoin market. Currently, the indicator is in the greedy stage, with a level of 68 points. This indicates that the market is heating, and investors are hoping for a movement that will trigger more capital tickets for BTC.
Derivatives aren't that late
As long as the activity of centralized exchange increases, we also highlight the derivative landscape. In this sector of the market, we can see that public interest in futures contracts has been steadily growing since April. Expanding to $55.6 billionas seen in the following graph. It's 51% (or US$19,000 million) more than in April, when it was worth around 36.8 billion. Such data suggests that leverage accumulation is occurring.
In parallel, public interest on options agreements increased by $46.2 billion (or 25.8 billion) compared to Figure 20.4 billion US$41 days ago.
In the case of GlassNode, the rapid expansion of open profits for options reflects a mature investor base Options are increasingly being used Implement more sophisticated strategies to improve risk management and negotiation positions.
The following graph shows the increase seen in open interest in Bitcoin options.
As reported by Cryptonotics, after a $110,000 ATH, the Bitcoin option also touched on historic maximums. Most traders point to prices up to USD 130,000 per BTC, with expiration dates concentrated on USD 110,000, USD 120,000 and USD 300,000 on June 27th. He anticipates a sustainable Bitcoin rallies in the short and medium term.
Bitcoin ETF is still the main character
Apart from options, the behavior of bags cited in Bitcoin Stock Market (ETF) in cash is also analyzed. GlassNode identifies the duration of purchase pressure that was issued at the end of April. And this impulse remains strong to date.
In the diagram, Bitcoin ETF experiences entry Over $300 million a day last week.
This purchasing pressure from both retailers and institutional investors is GlassNode said. It reflects BTC's “continuous trust”and it is a tail wind that is important for the market, supporting all the ass achieved since 2024.
Last week, Cryptootics reported that a US$600 million injection in ETFS fired Bitcoin into new records. This takes into account that cash ETFs have a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin, as they are supported by their underlying assets. Managing companies for these funds must acquire and maintain BTC at the Ministry of Finance to support the actions they issue.
The following graph shows the capital flow that has left Bitcoin ETFs in cash since last year.
Navigating new prices
When Bitcoin is in the price discovery zone, a combination of technical indicators and chain indicators can be used to assess market impulses. It also identifies signs of overheating.
111 DMA and 200 DMA are widely used to assess the impulse and strength of trends in the Bitcoin market. It can be supplemented with short-term investors' costs. This is a chain metric that reflects the average acquisition price of new market investors.
Currently, the price of BTC, around US$107,000, is well above three important levels. These average 11 DMA for USD 91,800. As shown in the graph below, in the short term, fork costs, 200 DMA and USD 95,900 USD 94,300 USD:
In particular, we will explain GlassNode. These price levels are closely matched in value and this convergence Provides strong confluence around critical support zonesit is important to maintain a greater bullish impulse.
This situation can be defined by adding an MVRV index. This is a tool that compares the market value of BTC with the average price purchased by investors. This helps identify periods where investors are very profitable Related to the long-term average.
Historically, ruptures in MVRV above the +1σ band are aligned There is a long-term macro roofing layerGlassNode says. In this case, the estimated price for a +1σ break is USD 119,400. This means that the prices of assets are integrated and the market is relatively hot, as you can see in this graph.
However, BTC has the space for greater expansion before investors' unrealized profits reach extreme levels, according to GlassNode. Usually at extreme levels They stimulate a general avalanche of class activitieswhich creates a significant increase in sales pressure.
Currently, standard deviation bands (+0.5σ and +1σ) act as a kind of thermometer if the market is “overheating” – that is, when the price is very high compared to normal. It also sends signals. Especially when applying for the holder's fees in the short term.
As shown in the graph below, the +0.5σ band is currently USD 120.300 and +1σ is USD 135,700. These are levels that show the average price of what investors have paid these days. If the price of Bitcoin is between 135,700 or more of these two levels, that means The market is in a very high price rangesomething that doesn't happen frequently.
Historically, the price of BTC has exceeded the +1σ band for 467 days and 484 days between these bands (+0.5σ and +1σ). This represents only 17.5% of the total time Bitcoin was present. In other words, it is very rare for prices to reach these levels. It is usually a sign that the price has reached a limit or “roof.” That is, it's the maximum point before falling or fixing in the short term.
120,000 US$, a good target for Bitcoin
Bitcoin, along with his new ATH, reached a milestone that unleashed a major rebound in activities in key market segments.
In that sense, as long as BTC enters the price discovery stage, there are 120,000 levels per currency. It emerges as a key point of interest for market participantsaccording to GlassNode.
Sales pressure is expected to be strengthened in this sector, particularly due to accumulation of sales orders and the potential for performance by long-term holders. This level can serve as a psychological and technical barrierconfluence of factors such as liquidity, volume of operations and investor actions determine whether BTC manages or faces revisions to the above integration.
This estimate is roughly in line with analyst Willie Woo's estimate. Willie Wu said USD 118,000 is a key price for Bitcoin.
Historical data suggest that round price ranges, such as USD 120,000, typically attract important activities that can generate short-term volatility. Meanwhile, the market is paying attention to the capital stream of ETFs and the open profit movement of derivatives; It could amplify trends at this important stage of the cycle.
