This week's major economic events will take place on Friday, when the US government released its May employment data. Prior to that, on Wednesday, three rather important data points were their own, all flashing unexpected weaknesses.
The first hit was ADP private salary in May. The report showed that it added just 37,000 jobs last month. Shy at 115,000 expectations, is already south of 60,000 already weak in April. It was the weakest ADP number since March 2023.
Next is the May ISM Services report, which arrived at 49.9 in April against 52 and 51.6. Numbers below 50 showed contractions, and May's first report in the zone in a year.
Finally, the US Federal Reserve released a beige book in May. “Economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report,” read the survey. “Half of the districts reported a slight to moderate decline in activity, three districts reported changes and three districts reported slight growth… The outlook is slightly pessimistic, uncertain and unchanged compared to previous reports. However, some district reports indicate that the outlook has deteriorated.”
Added, fresh data sent a 10-year US Treasury memo to 4.36% down 10 basis points, sending it to the lowest level in a month. Additionally, the probability of a rate reduction in July has increased from 22% a week ago to 29%, and by September the probability of one or more rate reductions has increased from 58% to 76%.
Where is Bitcoin?
Shivboles Bitcoin
BTC$105,053.30
It may be that you need to feed easily, if so, it may not be. The world's largest code rallied nearly 50%, two weeks ago, four weeks ago.
Still, softer monetary policy from the US Central Bank probably won't hurt. At least for today, Bitcoin is impressed with the idea that rate cuts will come sooner and later, and continues trading in a very quiet way at the 105,000 level.
The government's employment report on Friday may be important. Another soft print can quickly solidify Fed rate reductions this summer and get closer to turning the picture of interest rates from headwinds to tailwinds.
Economists' forecasts show that the US added 130,000 jobs in May, with unemployment rates stabilising at 4.2%.
