- Bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.7% above $107,000 on Thursday, following a sharp rebound from under $100,000 a week.
- A market pivoted from “flight to safety” to “full force risk-on” rally of tensions in the Middle East.
- This week's US GDP and unemployment data, as well as quarterly options/futures expiration dates, could result in more volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading firmly above $107,000 as Asian trading days are ongoing on Thursday, and the broader digital asset market also shows strength.
This impressive performance comes at the end of a turbulent week in which markets are dramatically shaking, ranging from fears of Middle Eastern conflict to strong risk-on rallying, crypto, tech inventory and wider market sentiment.
Looking back at this week's events, what began as a sale driven by an escalation of tensions, along with the Israeli-Iranian exchange rocket and the US bombing campaign at Iranian nuclear facilities, has turned into a textbook risk-on rally.
The initial anxiety surges investor trust and appears to be brushing the geopolitical dangers that were looming a few days ago.
“Word Rum Fade, Risk Appeal Roar” wrote trading company QCP Capital in its June 25th Market Note, fully capturing the sudden, dramatic change in mood.
It seemed the traders were either priced on the solution or simply stopped waiting for it. Instead of flight-to-safety, the move was risk-on with full force.
This pivot was displayed across multiple asset classes.
U.S. stocks rose sharply, oil prices returned to pre-dispute levels, and Crypto Exchange Coinbase stocks rose 12% on positive regulatory news.
For Bitcoin, the strong rebound of over $107,000 is not only a relief from recent tensions, but a new sense of upward momentum, with savvy investors turning to the macroeconomic calendar and the other to a potential global flashpoint.
Swing navigation: Important data and volatility ahead
Price action these days is nothing but volatile. “It was a sharp swing for a week at Crypto,” commented Gracie Lin, CEO of Okx Singapore.
Bitcoin fell below $100,000 early in the week when tensions in the Middle East rattled the market, but quickly recovered after news of a ceasefire.
Lynn points to a series of upcoming US economic data releases, including GDP figures and unemployment claims scheduled later this week as the next potential catalyst for Bitcoin's price transfer.
“Although PMI numbers have been stable these days, the continued weakness of housing has raised questions about the wider economy,” she said.
If Thursday's GDP or unemployment claims are weaker than expected, Bitcoin can earn money as investors are looking for a hedge against the weakness of traditional markets.
Adding another layer of potential turbulence, the quarterly expiration date for Bitcoin futures and options is scheduled for June 27th.
These events often result in price fluctuations as traders approach or cross positions. “We're expecting another match of volatility,” Lynn warned.
The whole picture
Although short-term volatility is expected, QCP Capital looks beyond the sharp swing of the week in its analysis to highlight the evolution of Bitcoin on the structural force driving recognized macro assets.
They point to important institutional momentum highlighted by events such as Procap's $386 million BTC purchase and Coinbase's recent regulatory victory under the EU's MICA framework.
“If this accumulation trend persists, Bitcoin could not only rival gold as a macro hedge, but also be comparable to its total market capitalization.”
This suggests a long-term bullish outlook supported by the expansion of institutional adoption.
Still, QCP adds an important note of attention: “Geopolitics remains a constantly existing undercurrent.”
The market has largely shrugged after the recent Israeli strike, but tensions between NATO and Russia have sparked new concerns.
The next geopolitical shock may not come from the Middle East as Western countries increase their defense budgets and President Trump is set to attend the upcoming NATO summit.
For now, Bitcoin is riding a strong wave of risk-on enthusiasm.
But just below the surface, the fundamental battle between short-term volatility and long-term beliefs, a fundamental battle between the fade sound of war drums and the stable rhythm of institutional purchase hopes continues to define this dynamic market.
