In a recent tweet, GlassNode, an on-chain analytics platform, places emphasis on the notion that the balance of exchanges automatically indicates a supply shock, calling it a “meme.”
The Bitcoin supply rate on exchanges fell below 15% for the first time since 2018, and some analysts see this as a supply shock as the institutional demand from funds (ETFs) traded on exchanges increases. Lowering Bitcoin on the exchange could reduce immediate sales pressure, but the situation is more subtle than simple internal and external metrics.
“The BTC balance of the exchange = supply shock balance is a meme,” GlassNode said, adding “this does not mean there are no actual supply constraints under the surface.”
“#BTC Exchange Balance Drop = Supply Shock” is a meme. But that doesn't mean there are no supply constraints – long-term holders are absorbing more $BTC than miners produce. That's the construction of pressure. pic.twitter.com/oztboxm0bm
– GlassNode (@GlassNode) July 12, 2025
According to GlassNode, long-term holders absorb more BTC than Miners issues.
Using the “Long-Term Holder Supply Storage and Issuance” indicator, GlassNode highlights that long-term holder supply changes are significantly greater than monthly issuance.
This supports the view that supply-side conditions will be tightened as a wide range of holders continue to absorb newly issued supplies. As the supply side continues to strengthen, the market becomes more vulnerable to demand shocks, causing even small swings to volatility at large price.
Bitcoin price activity
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $118,909 on Friday, closing the four-day rally that began on July 8th with a minimum of $107,438.
The surge began more slowly Wednesday after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve Conference were released. The roster of high-tech stocks also raised the price of Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $117,093, with traders expecting new highs in the coming months. Long-term options that expire in late September and December have favorable interest rates of $140,000 and $150,000, respectively.
