The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is determined by a half-cycle of four years. These halvings, which occur every four years, shape the price movement of Bitcoin both upward and downward.
But this era may be over.
The K33 survey states in its latest report that Bitcoin's traditional four-year bull cycle may be nearing the end. This suggests that Bitcoin's harving-driven cycle has lost its previous power as mining rewards decline, and macroeconomic factors are increasingly driving prices.
K33 Research noted that Bitcoin has traditionally followed a predictable upward pattern so far, reaching its all-time high for next year, following the four annual half-events seen in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin usually peaks around 1,060 days after the bottom of the market, indicating a potential peak by mid-October 2025 if half cycles apply.
However, K33 analysts argue that half of the trend has collapsed as Bitcoin has evolved into a more stable financial asset and is widely adopted by institutional investors.
“The impact of halving is significantly less today than in the past.
Over the past few years, harving events have caused a surge in by causing sudden supply shocks. However, now, widening access to institutions, increasing access to ETFs and increasing government interest have fundamentally changed the market dynamics of Bitcoin.
However, the power of the macroeconomics has become more influential and important in the price of Bitcoin. ”
As a result, according to a report from K33 Research, investors should focus on macro events such as inflation, interest rates and global political tensions. These have recently been affecting BTC prices, rather than focusing primarily on harving events.
*This is not investment advice.
