Bitcoin faces a strong selling barrier at the $120,000 level. The latest attempt to rise was rejected, with a 3% setback to around $118,525 on Tuesday. This short-term weakness is highlighted by the “death cross” on the four-hour chart and the divergence of bearishness in the daily RSI, both suggesting possible corrections.
If prices fall below the mid-term uptrend line, they can be pushed back towards a support level of around $117,000. However, as the daily MACD indicator shows, the bullish trend in macros remains strong, with the purchase signal being flashing recently.
Source: TradingView
Nevertheless, the bullish trend in macros remains strong, as flashed by the daily MACD indicator. In particular, on the daily MACD indicator, the MACD line crossed above the signal line as bullish histograms rose.
Source: TradingView
Inflation in July is cooler than expected
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, August 12th. According to aggregation data analysis from ForexFactory, CPI data in July was lower than 2.7% year-on-year, but economists expected CPI to reach 2.8% y/y.
Just like we covered. This CPI release was one of the biggest events on radar this week. Here's a complete preview of what you'll see.
The majority of traders, who account for 74%, had expected their CPI to be 2.7% on Tuesday, according to data from Kalshi, the CFTC regulatory forecast market platform. Inflation in July was raised by an ongoing tariff war between the US and China, particularly between the US and China.
Does this mean that the Bitcoin Rally will:
Bitcoin prices have experienced increased volatility in past CPI announcements. According to an analysis by Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, if Flagship Coin fell before the official announcement, Bitcoin prices often re-couped after CPI data release.
When Bitcoin $BTC immerses in advance of CPI or PPI reports, it often rotates right after the data drops and vice versa. pic.twitter.com/rzqdngzawi
– Ali (@Ali_Charts) August 12, 2025
Macro fundamentals remain strong
Bitcoin prices are heavily influenced by the macro foundations despite the short-term volatility caused by high impact news. The obvious aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional investors exacerbated supply and demand shocks, already causing macro bullish feelings.
According to Coinglass' market data analysis, BTC supply in centralized exchange has declined 7K over the past 30 days, surrounding a multi-year low of around 2.24 million coins.
for a long time. While traders watch time-based charts, one top analyst has a long-term strategy. Here is his view on how to play this new kind of bull market:
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