TL; PhD
- Exchange balances have fallen negatively from the 27m ETH peak, indicating historic withdrawal and closing of liquid supply.
- Ethereum trades at $4,390, a 3% drop per week, but the spill suggests long-term accumulation by holders.
- ETFs add demand with exchange withdrawal, as the analyst predicting ETH may target the next cycle.
The exchange balance is negative
According to analyst CasAbbé, Ethereum's ExchangeFlux Balance slipped into negative territory for the first time on record. Data show that outflows from exchanges exceed inflows and indicate changes in how ETH is retained. Abbe said,
“This isn't noise, it's pulling billions of ETH away from the exchange.”
On the other hand, this movement reflects a reduction in the supply of liquid as the tokens are transferred to self-support or refrigerated. Added by Abbe
“ETH is located to hold rather than to sell.”
Exchange balances have been declining since the second half of 2020. Even with prices fluctuating sharply, the overall trend is low. This decline has accelerated over the past two years, falling below zero this month from ETH of over 27 million at its peak.
$eth Exchange balance has become negative
On record, the Ethereum Exchange Flux Balance shows net spills across all exchanges.
This is not a noise, and it is billions of dollars that ETH is pulled away from the exchange. Simply put, the price is… pic.twitter.com/6llfwsosz7 liquid supply is shrinking
– CasAbbé (@cas_abbe) September 5, 2025
Abbé noted that previous market cycles show the tops that are formed only after this trend has reversed. In contrast, current conditions suggest accumulation. A stable outflow indicates that the holders choose to lock up their assets rather than trading them.
Ethereum price trends
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $4,390 for a 24-hour volume of $24 billion, based on Coingecko data. Assets remain stable on a daily scale, but have fallen 3% over the past week. Momentum is cooled in the short term, but replacement drawers refer to lower sales pressure.
Trader Merrizin described the Ethereum pattern as repeating it throughout the cycle.
“First, a shakeout. Then a congregation of disbelief. Finally, a vertical blow,” he wrote.
His chart puts ETH at a congregation of mistrust, predicting movements above $10,000 if the cycle continues.
ETF growth adds demand
Funds traded on Ethereum Exchange also play a role in recent activities. Milk Road highlighted the strong inflow since July.
“The $eth ETF took a while to get started… but when the momentum hit them they never looked back.”
ETF participation was added to the market demand side, in conjunction with a reduced exchange supply. Conditions indicate tightening the supply environment as more ETHs are experiencing exchange and institutional products.
