The US spot Bitcoin ETF has taken over $1 billion in net inflows over the past week, setting up a clean test of supply and demand if the Federal Reserve cuts prices next week as Bitcoin prices showed strength above $110,000.
Farside Investors shows $741.5 million on the day, Fidelity's FBTC is $299.0 million and BlackRock's IBIT is $2111.2 million, but intraday vendor tallies vary slightly depending on the timing and processing of creation and reimbursement.
Bitcoin traded about $114,132 on September 11, after August records exceeded the $124,000 reported by Reuters.
At current prices, arithmetic is easy. The $757 million net inflow will buy approximately 6,640 BTC. This is equivalent to a new issue in nearly 15 days at a postharving pace of around 450 BTC per day.
In April last year, half reduced block subsidies to 3.125 BTC, with about 144 blocks being mined per day, so there is a baseline issuance near that 450 BTC mark, subject to slight variations in block time.
| Net ETF Flow (USD) | I bought an implicit BTC ($114,000) | The days of publication have been absorbed (~450 btc/day) |
|---|---|---|
| $500,000,000 | ≈4,386BTC | Approximately 9.7 days |
| $757,000,000 | ≈6,640BTC | Approximately 14.8 days |
| $1,000,000,000 | ≈8,772BTC | Approximately 19.5 days |
| $5,000,000,000 (per month) | ≈43,860 BTC | ≈97.5 days |
Another demand shock setup depends on the policy. A Reuters economist poll conducted from September 8th to 11th saw a 25 basis point cut on September 17th, and the research notes market is already fully predicting the movement.
CME's FedWatch tool shows how Fed Reserve fund futures embed these odds in real time, with the message that the probability should be attributed to FedWatch. If the Fed falls from last week's 1.79% printing, the Fed will be reduced and real yields for 10 years are low, the macro background that has supported record gold ETF inflows in recent months will rhyme with the ETF era of Bitcoin.
The flow is already built again. Farside's daily table shows the strongest daily intake since July, led by FBTC and IBIT. Sosovalue's publisher-level dashboard supports leadership splits, with the latest one-day measurements listing nearly $221 million of IBIT 1D net inflows at nearly $299 million, consistent with the above totals. Data vendors vary in margins due to cutoff times and She Account updates, but the order of scale is clear.
The supply side became mechanical after halfway.
The mined issuance currently reflects a 3.125 BTC block subsidies and an average cadence of nearly 144 blocks each day, placing the upper limit of organic supply in the ETF demand window.
A half block of height 840,000 on April 20, 2024 is a verifiable on-chain reference for grant changes (block 840,000). Friction inside the ETF pipe has also been reduced. In late July, the SEC approved the creation and redemption of Crypto ETPS physical items, and approved Bitcoin and etheric products tailored to the mechanics used by the commodity ETPS.
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Cuts test how much of its demand is rate sensitive and structural. One way to frame it is “issue date per day.” If the daily net inflow runs at $250 million, $500 million, then $1 billion, then the absorption rate is around 4.9, 9.7, then 19 per day. It spans five days of issuance and costs $114,000.
Price shifts change mathematics. The same $757 million absorbs about 16.0 days for about $105,000 and about 14.0 days for about $120,000. Its sensitivity is immediate in major markets and interacts with dealer inventory, cross-venue liquidity, and futures-based costs.
Derivative transport costs remain moderate by 2025 standards. Generally, three-month aggregation rates at major venues are concentrated in mid-single digits. This is a zone that does not add any major headwinds to hedged ETF-related inventory or invite extreme carry compression.
As cuts lower the funds and standards, the relative appeal of HONDED spot-only exposure within the ETF could increase in asset allocation models that manage tracking errors and total leverage.
The stock of available coins is important along with the flow.
Maglsnode's non-current supply metric tracks coins held by entities with little or no spending history, rising to a record above 14.3 million BTC in late August. Because this inventory has historically slow mobilisation, major ETF demands often lean towards exchange balances and dealerware housings rather than immediate LTH distributions.
Mining Economics sits in the background as a release valve. Luxor's hash priswork shows the post-harving revenue per unit of hash. Pressure on the Minor Treasury could free up inventory, but its channels are finite compared to ETF intake at the rates mentioned above.
Therefore, next week's scenario frame is narrow and can be tested. If the Fed cuts 25 bps and ETF net inflow moves to the $500 million to $1 billion range daily in several sessions, the primary market will absorb approximately 10-20 days of issuance every day at current prices.
If the Fed keeps and the actual harvest is solid, the flow will be flat, reaching $250 million. This means that approximately five days of issuance per day will be absorbed.
The in-kind administration, current basic term structure, and illiquid supply all show how quickly the imbalance manifests itself in the effects of spreads and prices, rather than the drawn aperture.
For now, tapes have a simple benchmark. One day, the US spot ETF flow coincided with almost two weeks of new Bitcoin, with the September 17 policy decision to decide whether the ratio will become a routine feature or a strong week outlier.
