Bitcoin Price It's down this week. For now, that's below USD 110,000, but there's a risk that it could fall below the psychological threshold of USD 100,000.
The problem is that the downward trend appears to be starting this week and is not over yet.
Bitcoin prices downward
Thursday, September 18th, Bitcoin Price It was closed above 117,000 USD.
But the next day it fell below this threshold and below USD 116,000 before the weekend.
The weekend was mild, but corrections have been triggered since Monday. Therefore, the downward trend began just seven days ago and has not yet concluded.
However, a similar situation had already occurred at the end of August, and it must be said that a downward trend has continued for exactly two weeks. But it was a meaningful and simple correction after hitting the highest level ever.
The lowest point in that correction reached under US$107,500 on August 29th, but has not yet fallen below US$108,000 recently.
In fact, at the beginning of September, there was a small rebound thanks to the first recapture of US$117,000 on September 16th, which made me feel a bit optimistic about the market. That optimism has proven unfair to date, at least in the short term.
Dollar Index (DXY)
The price movements for these Bitcoin are Dollar Indexalthough the opposite is true, Inverse correlation of BTC and dxy.
In particular, the Dollar Index has resumed its decline from Friday, September 5th. This is because they have already lost more than 10% since their peak on January 8th.
That decline lasted precisely until September 16th, losing more than 1.6% within two weeks.
This drop in the dollar index was responsible for Bitcoin's price rebound in the first two weeks of the month, and as soon as DXY actually recovered, BTC fell again.
In fact, starting September 17th, the Dollar Index has risen from 96.7 points the previous day to 98.5 points yesterday. Today, it is more or less stable at this level, but it is not certain that it will stay there for a long time.
Bitcoin price forecast
There is Two contrasting predictions About the trends of Dollar Indexit may also affect trends of Prices Bitcoin.
The first suggests a rebound of dxy In the last 10 days, it may not be finished in the short term.
In fact, the upper limit of the downward channel, which lasted for eight months, is currently located around 98.9 points, so there is even room for rising while continuing to stay within the downward channel.
Meanwhile, the second forecast states that the medium-term descending channels can actually remain held until the end of the year.
Therefore, the hypothesis that can be proposed is the hypothesis of a continuing mini-upward trend in the dollar index in the short term, but may resume declines in the medium term.
If things really go this way, we might expect a continuous decline in Bitcoin prices to last for several more days, but the Bull Run may also resume in the coming months.
Bull Run
Even the reboot hypothesis of Bitcoin Bull Runstems from forecasts that in the medium term, the dollar index could resume its decline by the end of the year.
In fact, in the long run, the dollar index has been within the downward channel since the end of 2007, despite being above and below the average trend.
This upward trend over the past 18 years is very likely to support US exports and imports, and ultimately significantly integrate the trade balance with foreign countries.
In fact, at the end of 2007, the US trade balance with the US was about $58 billion, but by the beginning of 2024 it fell to -67 billion. Trump's election victory in November caused imports to surge before tariffs were applied, causing US trade balances to hit -$136 billion in March this year, reaching the worst ever figure in history.
However, in July it was still negative by a considerable 78 billion people, as tariffs were already in effect.
The only real solution appears to be a devaluation of the dollar. This means a disruption to the rising channel of the dollar index, which has been underway since 2007.
At the moment, the underlined channel is located at about 96.5 points, far less than the 96.7 points reached September 16th.
If the Trump administration actually succeeds in ending the existence of such an upward channel, the result of Bitcoin's price should be very positive, as the dollar index is under 96.5 points for a sufficiently long period.
