The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing a correction after reaching an all-time high near $126,000 (USD) last week. Meanwhile, an ounce of gold today crossed $4,300, reaching a new historic record and renewing market expectations.
According to a report published by analyst Marcus from crypto market research firm Delphi Digital, the Bitcoin-gold pair remains in a correction phase, albeit in a more bullish trend.
“My fundamental view is that this is a classic pullback in an ongoing uptrend, not the start of a new bear market,” he said. According to historical patterns, Bitcoin correction is expected to be completed between late November and December.
Marcus added that the structure of this reduction “remains consistent with the setbacks from the previous cycle.” As he explained, a simple trending framework for tracking changes between both assets is a 21-week and 9-week exponential moving average (EMA) crossover strategy.
“BTC tends to enter a sustained bearish phase against gold once the 21-week EMA crosses the 9-week EMA.
“If the 9-week EMA rises above the 21-week EMA again, it would signal the beginning of a sustained bullish cycle,” he points out.
Marcus highlighted that the historical record for the Bitcoin-gold pair “has had eight bearish crosses.” A major trend reversal is ahead.
Therefore, “the risk case is if the divergence continues beyond December, but the expected reversal window is perfectly aligned with Bitcoin's strongest seasonal period,” he says.
In a similar vein, trader Alex Weisey commented: Gold top equals Bitcoin bottomaccording to the pattern shown five years ago. « 2020 proved that. It’s about to repeat itself in 2025,” he exclaimed with enthusiasm, in case the metal’s rally stops in favor of Bitcoin.
Wacy's hypothesis is based on the idea that gold's peaks tend to coincide with Bitcoin's troughs, suggesting a rotation of liquidity between the two assets.
Increased liquidity will benefit Bitcoin
Meanwhile, analyst Ted Pillows offered a broader perspective on comparative analysis with precious metals. In his opinion, Bitcoin's typical four-year cycle is likely to no longer continue, given the new situation of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which could add liquidity.
“Always remember it's never about four-year cycles, it's about liquidity,” he said. According to Pillows, the focus is on: Will gold liquidity migrate to Bitcoin? Towards 2026.
“If people start looking at Bitcoin as the best 'safe haven' asset now that gold appears to be overbought, there's a good chance it could reach $150,000,” he said. Otherwise, you will see that the currency is on the brink of a bear market.
In the short term, analysts noted that: Bitcoin struggles to regain support between $108,000 and $109,000According to a report from CriptoNoticias, this week it fell to a four-month low of US$103,000.
If this floor is restored, BTC could rally towards USD 112,000 within the next few days. However, if we are unable to recover the 108,000 level, we will head towards the USD 100,000 region,” Pillows said based on previous support resistance.
With gold reaching all-time highs and Bitcoin undergoing a correction, the safe-haven market is at a critical juncture. For many, the outcome of this divergence will determine the fate of global assets toward the end of the year.
