Investor and market analyst Juan Rodriguez predicts a favorable scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) prices in the final quarter of 2025, centered on the potential rotation of capital away from gold and into more volatile assets.
The move will depend on key macroeconomic catalysts, such as the upcoming U.S.-China summit and U.S. inflation data, Rodriguez said.
In a recent analysis, the host of the YouTube channel “Bitcoin and Crypto” explained: The market is in a similar situation to 2020when gold reaches its highest price and then enters a laterization phase.
The following graph shows this happening with gold right now.
This 2020 action took place before the shift of capital to Bitcoin caused its price to rise. “At that point, some investors (not a large percentage, 2%) moved their money from gold to Bitcoin and participated in that investment.” rally “It’s bullish,” he noted.
Currently, gold has experienced a “very significant rally” and is showing signs of consolidation, while Bitcoin remains range-bound. “Many of us are expecting an uptrend toward the end of this year,” Rodriguez said.
The main theory is that as economic uncertainty decreases, investors will seek higher returns on assets like Bitcoin.
The trigger for this change may be a meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents.. A positive outcome in trade negotiations would reduce geopolitical risks and encourage capital outflows from safe-haven assets. “If it turns out to be a positive outcome, there could be a capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin,” he commented.
What would be the price of Bitcoin if it rotated its capital out of gold?
To measure impact, Rodriguez cited Bitwise research that suggests: Bitcoin could exceed $134,000 with sales of just 1% of gold capital. But he warned that “without a deal, this rotation will not happen, rather the opposite will happen.”
Another short-term determinant is U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. It is expected to recover to 3.1%, but analysts say this figure is “already discounted by the market”. The real risk to digital currency prices will be higher than expected data. “The problem is that we're going to see a number above this. That's bearish and a $100,000 scenario is probably possible,” he said.
From an on-chain analytics perspective, Rodriguez highlighted the behavior of whales (entities with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC). he observed it New whale “dramatically” increased Bitcoin holdingsIt's a similar pattern seen before the 2021 bull market.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, although there has been recent selling by some older whales, the analyst noted that “they collectively accumulated around 30,000 Bitcoin” during the last correction.
Finally, Rodriguez contrasted the outlook for Bitcoin with that of other digital assets and warned of risks. He cited the case of Ripple's co-founder, who, according to data he presented, has “already sold more than $764 million in XRP tokens, many at local peak prices.” For analysts, Investors’ strategic focus should remain on assets with strong fundamentals like Bitcoin.
