As the week draws to a close, the pulse of the Bitcoin (BTC) market has resumed its rhythm of tense calm.
After last week's “arrhythmia” due to concerns about US regional banks, EKG prices were flat in a relatively narrow range. Between $106,000 and $113,000, but with a slight upward trend.
The market hasn't rallied much, but its apparent calm hides huge potential energy awaiting two triggers that could set the pace for the rest of the year: an almost certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
While Bitcoin waited, its physical counterpart gold suffered a collapse, leaving an unmistakable sign that capital was looking for new destinations.
EKG of the week: Gold has a heart attack, Bitcoin resists
This week started with the market recovering from the previous scare. But on Tuesday, October 21st, the heart rate of safe-haven assets changed dramatically.
As reported by CriptoNoticias, gold, which just hit a historic high of over $4,300 an ounce, suffered its worst daily decline since 2013, dropping more than 6%.
The cause was a significant reduction in geopolitical risks. This is news of the 12-point peace plan for Ukraine promoted by the United States, which aims to freeze the war with Russia.
This event acted as a defibrillator for capital turnover theory. Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience as investors have taken huge profits from gold that has reached technical overbought levels.
The digital currency, which briefly fell below $110,000, rebounded strongly on the same day and rose above $113,000. The market witnessed this in real time As global tensions decline, capital will flow from ancient havens to digital assets.
This decoupling reinforces the analysis of firms such as VanEck, which this week described Bitcoin's recent decline as a “mid-cycle correction” rather than the beginning of a bear market. The fund manager said the market had recovered after the leverage decline at the beginning of the month, and that the increased participation of financial institutions on regulated platforms reflected growing maturity. The theory is that the fundamental pulse is still strong.
On the other hand, the data On-chain reveal it Markets enter a “stage of distrust”. According to CryptoQuant analysis, negative funding rates in the futures market indicate that many traders who are still affected by the previous crash (October 10th crash) are making bearish bets.
Paradoxically, this accumulation of short positions can act as “fuel” for an explosive bullish move if prices rise, triggering large-scale liquidations of short sellers and short sellers. short aperture.
What’s coming next: Bitcoin’s big bullish factor
If the pulse is slow this week, next week could see a dizzying acceleration. everyone is paying attention Two macroeconomic events that act as stress tests for the core of the market.
The first was the October 29th Federal Reserve meeting, where the consensus was nearly unanimous. Polymarket prediction markets put a 96% chance that interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points, a view backed up by a 99% chance from JPMorgan strategists.
Loose monetary policy makes credit cheaper, increases liquidity in the system, and has historically served as a powerful stimulus for assets in tight supply like Bitcoin.
The second, and perhaps more decisive, is the upcoming summit between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. An agreement to end, or at least suspend, the “tariff wars” that have roiled markets in 2025 would dramatically reduce global uncertainty. As noted by analyst Juan Rodriguez, a positive outcome could be the decisive trigger for capital to rotate from gold to Bitcoin.
A Bitwise study cited by Rodriguez estimates that a shift of just 1% of capital from the gold market could push the price of Bitcoin above $134,000. On the contrary, the lack of international agreements may strengthen risk aversion and keep capital in traditional havens.
The calm that foretells a storm
This week ends with a diagnosis that suggests stability is expected.. The market pulse is steady, but blood pressure is high. Bitcoin's story as a store of value has been strengthened by the collapse of gold and the resilience of digital currencies.
Furthermore, the global money supply (M2) remains at an all-time high of $137 trillion, which remains a very favorable situation. As analysts have pointed out, the “money printing press” has not stopped, and the continued devaluation of fiat currencies has become the main long-term argument against the accumulation of scarce assets.
The market structure is also showing signs of maturing. The transfer of coins from long-term holders to new institutional bonds limits short-term explosive growth, but creates a more solid foundation for holders.
Projects like Roxom, a stock exchange with Bitcoin as its national currency, launched this week, show that the ecosystem is continuing to expand its boundaries and integrate Bitcoin into the global financial architecture.
Today, the heart of the Bitcoin market is beating quietly, but bracing for a potential adrenaline rush. Fundamental vital signs are strong, but next week's stress test results will determine whether the pace accelerates toward new record highs or whether uncertainty-induced arrhythmias return. For now, The market waits with bated breath for the next beat.
