Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range for the past 48 hours. Temporarily testing highs above $115,000. Despite remaining above $113,000, The bears may argue that Momentum is starting to wane and prices are showing signs of drying up.
This cautious phase has some market watchers wondering whether Bitcoin's bull run has already peaked or whether more is on the horizon. One analyst known as Sonny of social media platform X believes that next week will determine whether Bitcoin price has outperformed this cycle.
Ultimatum for Bitcoin bull cycle
In a post about X, Sony explained his outlook on Bitcoin as a binary. He said Bitcoin needs to rise fully vertically after next week's weekly cycle low. Otherwise, the top is 100% in. Essentially, this means that over the next few trading sessions we will see if BTC still has room to run or if the top has already moved in above the October 6th high of $126,000.
Bitcoin needs to rise next week to negate the possibility that the top is already in. Expert forecasts consider the possibility of an extended fifth wave scenario of the last bullish Elliott wave of a final parabolic surge unfolding in November.
If he is Bitcoin, This move failed in November, In other words, it has already entered the distribution stage and the bullish cycle that started in the second half of 2023 has already been completed. The chart accompanying his post supports this view, showing BTC in a correction phase labeled as an ABC structure within a broad Elliott wave count.
This chart also shows the third wave of corrections that completed in early 2024 at around $73,000 and the fourth wave of corrections that lasted until the end of 2024. According to his label, the ongoing price movements represent a continuation of the fifth wave, which began after the fourth wave ended. Amid this movement, BTC has already reached new all-time highs.
Convert Outlook and Rotation to Altcoins
However, this structure also leaves room for a more bearish interpretation, with the current pullback being just a second-wave correction within a larger decline. This means that Bitcoin needs to decisively break above $120,000 next week to confirm the continuation of the fifth wave. If you don't, it means BTC has already reached the highest value of this cycle.
After hitting the last local bottom, Sony expects a rotation to Ethereum and altcoins to begin the long-awaited altseason. This perspective means that if Bitcoin fails to achieve the expected parabolic expansion, capital will move away from Bitcoin's dominance and into the altcoin market.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $113,120, slightly back from its intraday high of $116,041. It may be decided next week Will this recovery begin? Vertical movement, or confirm that Bitcoin's all-time high is already in.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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