Bitcoin price is at a very interesting point in the current market cycle. It's hard to know what's going to happen next because there are so many different opinions and prices don't change much. But when we look at the key data, the picture becomes clearer. These signals not only indicate what will happen in the near future, but can also reveal what will happen in the coming weeks and months.
table of contents
Realized price for short-term holders and Bitcoin price support
We begin with the short-term holder realized price, which is the effective average cost basis for new market participants. This level has historically acted as a dynamic zone of support and resistance throughout each cycle. Currently, the realized price of STH is around $113,000, close to the price Bitcoin is currently trading at. Despite a sharp liquidation event earlier this month, the market has recovered and stabilized around this level.
Figure 1: Realized prices for short-term holders indicate structural support for market confidence. View live charts
If Bitcoin is above the price realized by short-term holders, it indicates that the average recent buyer is either breaking even or making a small profit. This often increases investor confidence and drives additional capital turnover into the market. In past cycles, such as 2017, every retest of this line provided an ideal accumulation opportunity before the next upper leg. If support can be sustained above this, it could once again provide the foundation for the next phase of the bullish cycle.
Understanding MVRV ratio and Bitcoin price evaluation
Besides the realized price itself, we look at the short-term holder market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin's current market price and its total realized price. This ratio helps identify situations where you are over or undervalued.
A clear pattern has emerged in previous cycles, with Bitcoin consistently finding support around the 0.66 level during significant declines, making it a prime zone for accumulation. On the upside, significant resistance has historically appeared around 1.33, 1.43, and 1.64, corresponding to profit-taking points where new participants reach unrealized gains of 33%, 43%, and 64%, respectively.
Figure 2: Historical short-term holder MVRV data reveals key upside points. View live charts
You can use these multiples to estimate your future goals. We can predict potential resistance zones for this cycle by multiplying the current STH realized price ~$113,000 by these MVRV thresholds. In the 1.33 zone, prices are expected to be around $160,000 at the end of the year. The middle 1.43 zone corresponds to a forecast of approximately $170,000, and the upper zone of 1.64 is estimated at approximately $200,000. These levels align very well with historical resistance zones, suggesting that the $160,000 to $200,000 range could act as a key price ceiling if Bitcoin continues to outperform its realized base.
Figure 3: Using MVRV ratio band targets to predict resistance and profit zones through the end of 2025.
MVRV for long-term holders and Bitcoin price peak
Next, we look at the Long Term Holder MVRV Ratio, which measures the unrealized gains and losses of the most experienced investors in the market. The behavior of this cohort provides important insights into macrocycle dynamics. During the 2017 bull market, LTH MVRV peaked at 36.2. The 2021 cycle peaked at 12.58, a decline of approximately 2.9x, demonstrating the diminishing returns structure that defined Bitcoin's maturity.
Figure 4: MVRV ratio for long-term holders tracking a diminishing returns model. View live charts
Applying the same reduction factor (÷2.88) suggests a potential peak around 4.37 for this current cycle. Given that the realized price for long-term holders is around $37,400, a multiple of 4.37x means the potential target is around $163,000 to $165,000, which overlaps with the upper-end target derived from short-term holder data and levels already reached this cycle in terms of LTH MVRV.
Rolling MVRV Framework and Bitcoin Price Dynamics
As the Bitcoin market evolves, the traditional MVRV metric will need to adapt as well. One of the most effective approaches is to view these ratios on a rolling basis. This takes into account dynamic changes in market conditions.
When modeled on a two-year rolling basis, MVRV Z-scores remove some of the “declining peak” seen in static models. The peak around 3.0 and the trough around –1.0 consistently coincide with the market top and bottom. Interestingly, the current reading is closer to the buy zone than the sell zone, suggesting that Bitcoin is still in an accumulation friendly range.
Figure 5: MVRV Z-score 2-year rolling metric smoothes out periodic extremes and improves accuracy. View live charts
For more granularity, you can also evaluate the MVRV ratio on a 100-day rolling basis, which captures within-cycle fluctuations. In this model, spikes above +2 correlate with local tops, and dips below -2 coincide with local bottoms and the optimal DCA zone. Throughout Bitcoin's history, this 100-day rolling MVRV framework has identified some of the most accurate short-term accumulation and distribution points within broader cyclical trends.
Figure 6: Rolling 100-day MVRV ratios historically record highs and lows within a cycle.
conclusion
Even as the Bitcoin market matures and institutional involvement deepens, these core on-chain valuation frameworks remain among the most powerful tools for cycle analysis. Realized price models, especially those associated with specific cohorts, provide insight into market conviction and indicate when participants are likely to take advantage or when a change in behavior is likely to trigger the next move. More importantly, adapting traditional metrics to a rolling framework ensures that our model evolves with Bitcoin itself, capturing new investor behavior, liquidity cycles, and growing institutional influence that will define the future of this market.
If Bitcoin can continue to sustain above the STH realized price, the data suggests there is plenty of upside room, and a reasonable cycle target would be in the $160,000 to $200,000 range.
If you want to learn more about this topic, check out our latest YouTube video: Bitcoin: This On-Chain Data Tells Us Where Price Goes Next
For more in-depth data, charts, and expert insights on Bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please be sure to do your own research before making any investment decisions.
This article “This Bitcoin Price Cycle Data Reveals Next Major Bull Run” written by Matt Crosby was first published in Bitcoin Magazine.
