Bitcoin is undergoing one of its most important periods in years, with analysts warning that November and December could determine whether the crypto market continues its bull run or enters a prolonged bear phase.
Some technical patterns from past cycles are coming back, raising the question everyone is asking: Did Bitcoin already peak at $126,000 in October?
Related: Bitcoin price is expected to rebound as mined BTC exceeds 95% of the 21 million limit
Bear case: signs that the cycle may end
Bitcoin may have already hit all-time highs this cycle, and here's why.
1. Closing price below the 50-week moving average
Bitcoin recently closed below its 50-week simple moving average, a level that historically signals the end of a bull market. Each time this has happened in previous cycles, Bitcoin has entered a downtrend lasting 5 to 11 months, ultimately forming the bottom of the next bear market.
If history repeats itself, a new low could form in the second half of 2026, potentially in the $30,000-$40,000 range.
2. Long-term trendline suggests a cycle top of $126,000
The major resistance trend line connecting the 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks is perfectly consistent with Bitcoin's performance from July to October this year. This trendline sets the upper bound for the bull market at around $126,000, suggesting that the October high may have been the last high of the cycle.
Additionally, Bitcoin's monthly MACD indicator is flashing a bearish cross, a signal that previously led to a major correction.
Bull case: why this cycle doesn't follow the old rules
Despite the bearish signals, there is a strong argument that this cycle could break the normal pattern. Changes in macroeconomics, market structure, and recruitment have significantly altered this cycle.
1. Lower interest rates could boost Bitcoin in 2026
Historically, Bitcoin has risen when US interest rates have fallen. With the Fed now starting a new rate cutting cycle, bulls are arguing that Bitcoin could gain significant momentum in 2026 as liquidity returns to the market.
2. This cycle has already broken multiple historical patterns
Several things have already happened in this cycle. never Happened before:
• Bitcoin hits new high before halving
• The annual candle, which was supposed to be dark green, is now red.
• The real season for altcoins has not yet arrived
• Institutional ownership of Bitcoin will triple since 2021
With so many unusual changes in market structure, bulls argue that assuming a textbook four-year cycle may be a mistake. As of this writing, Bitcoin is below the $90,000 level.
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