Bitcoin liquidity is drying up in certain regions as new “Pay-to-Exit” models quietly take over

Belarus expanded its blockade of platforms in December, tightening access to exchanges and tightening the borders of tech parks for residents.

The move fits into a broader access strategy across EMEA and APAC that uses communication blocklists, app store takedowns, and KYC gates to shape who has access to the same BTC and USDT order books.

The real result is the return of de facto capital control in digital wrappers, with passports, IP ranges, and local licenses setting trading locations and exit prices.

Belarusian telecommunications registry BelGIE continues to add domains to its restricted resource list used for ISP-level blocking.

Local reports in December warned of new blocks on foreign exchange front-ends, in addition to a legal framework restricting high-tech park operators from transactions with individuals in Belarus and restricting P2P activities.

Authorities are targeting unregistered exchanges, and the latest EU sanctions prohibit Belarusians from holding wallets with EU providers after February 24, 2025.

According to Onliner's reporting on these measures, the wallet ban removes a common storage escape valve, forcing residents to go through approved HTP operators or move to gray rails.

Enforcement tools are easy and quick.

DNS and IP blocks route traffic at the carrier level, app stores eliminate mobile access, and exchanges erect KYC walls that hard stop new and existing users based on their location.

Reuters said Russia's December actions showed how quickly content filters can spread to consumer applications, adding new blocks such as Snapchat and restricting FaceTime.

The same levers apply to exchange domains, API gateways, and wallet UIs, instantly disconnecting retailers and small institutions and forcing them to sanctioned local venues or unregulated bridges.

This pattern is not limited to Belarus and Russia

According to the Economic Times, India escalated its second wave against offshore platforms on October 1, 2025, with FIU-IND issuing notices to 25 VASPs, ordering them to block unregistered URLs and apps under AML rules.

There is already a path in sight to get back on track, register, pay the fine and then operate under supervision.

According to Reuters, Binance registered with the FIU in early 2024 and subsequently paid a penalty of 188.2 million rupees, or about $2.25 million.

According to the Thai SEC, Thailand officially established its own border on June 28, 2025, and worked with law enforcement agencies and the Ministry of Digital Economy to block Bybit, OKX, CoinEx, XT, and 1000X, which operate without a local license.

According to a joint OJK press note, Indonesia transferred supervision from Bape Buti to the Financial Services Authority and Bank Indonesia on January 10, 2025, laying the foundation for license-gated access and stricter ramp control.

Tracking with these tools that influence market structure

As access narrows, liquidity is concentrated in compliant venues and collective depth becomes venue-dependent rather than asset-dependent.

Kaiko’s 2025 lens shows that altcoin market depth has declined since the beginning of the year, while BTC depth is maintained on well-regulated exchanges.

When a jurisdiction is forced to terminate through a URL or app removal, the market typically experiences short-term disruption, widening spreads and increased slippage, and a premium for local fiat-stablecoin pairs to survive until flows are rerouted.

The Philippines' measures to block access to Binance have created a similar pattern regarding withdrawal risks and access to legal rails.

Belarus is small on a global scale, so the global BTC book will likely not notice a noticeable drop from local users alone, but local boundaries still matter.

A simple scenario allows us to frame the interests of market makers and retailers in limited access markets.

Suppose a local user considers a share s of the taker volume of venue V. The block reduces local taker flows by α over T corresponding to 2 to 6 weeks until the transition is complete, and the market depth D responds with an elasticity ε of about 0.4 to 0.7 for mid-cap stocks.

The short-term depth change is ΔDepth ≈ −ε・α・s.

If s is less than 0.5% in the Belarusian major, the world books will hardly move. Local books, including BYN rail and HTP venues, are likely to tighten in the form of wider commissions and bid-price spreads as market makers price in additional operational and compliance risks.

In the case of altcoins, the impact of elasticity is stronger as manufacturers have less inventory and use a smaller number of more disaggregated books as hedging routes.

Regional flow data reinforces that access control and usage can coexist

Chainalysis ranks Europe as the largest crypto region in terms of receipts in 2025, with Russia leading EMEA inflows, alongside a world of parallel headline blocks and commercializations.

According to Chainalysis, the latest index shows the Asia-Pacific region showing the fastest adoption trends, with India in first place and the United States in second place.

This means that URL blocking in India has implications beyond domestic users, as large offshore exchanges serve liquidity providers that arbitrage across trading partners and regions around the world.

As these pipes move closer, even temporarily, to a major user base, bridging depth, routing, and hedging costs for desks outside India will change.

Three enforcement models are now visible across EMEA and APAC.

There are complete geo-blocks that route traffic through carrier tiers and app stores, with Belarus and Thailand being clear examples.

According to the Securities Commission Malaysia's Digital Asset Framework, there is license gating through land-based silos, which Malaysia and Turkiye are using to create market share for domestic regulated exchanges without an outright ban.

Then there is the registration-to-reentry path used in India, where notices, blocks, registrations, and fines remove non-compliant liquidity and, over time, return trading volume to the compliant pool.

Each model produces different temporal profiles in terms of extent and depth, but they all fragment the overall picture of the book.

Future risks in 2026 will be centered around updates to the same toolkit

Belarus may add domains to BelGIE following a ministerial circular, increasing pressure on P2P operators.

India may issue additional FIU blocks if the October notification is not translated into registration and fines, and the MeitY order prompts enforcement through app stores and ISPs.

Thailand could extend the block to wallet front-ends and domains that seek to circumvent existing listings, the SEC's bulletin shows.

While Pakistan's policy stance is tilting towards a regulatory framework that could introduce limited licenses for access to foreign platforms, market reports indicate that the UAE's VARA is prioritizing compliance-driven geofencing against unlicensed solicitation, which channels are flowing rather than being switched off.

Order routing behavior will continue to change as venues tighten their KYC boundaries and telecom regulators add blocks.

APIs and IP geofencing push users into VPNs, OTC desks, P2P, and custodial bridges, reducing transparent price discovery and undermining risk models that rely on integrated order books.

OTC shares will rise in regions where access to exchanges narrows and administrative risks shift to less supervised providers, particularly where access to wallets through EU-based services is limited to certain nationalities.

Belarus’ double-walled system, HTP border and domicile ban on EU wallets increases the likelihood that users will adopt gray custodianships lacking robust customer asset protection.

An enduring strategy for traders and treasurers is to map venue access by jurisdiction, segment hedges across license pools by stable rails, and expect repeated basis shocks in regional pairs after enforcement actions.

Kaiko's exchange ranking work can anchor snapshots of venue selection and depth, while Chainaloss' regional flow data can frame the speed of volume rerouting following ISP and app changes.

Altcoin pairs are first compressed when local takers disappear, so explicit buffers for slippage and working capital are required.

For teams with regional customers, provide inventory from land-based venues when possible and keep payment rails redundant to avoid downtime for block orders.

The access wall is moving and the impact on prices is already visible at the edges

Compliance is becoming a market share strategy in APAC, supervised restarts in India with registrations and fines, and license gates in EMEA creating liquidity silos without halting crypto activity.

Belarus' December block shows how quickly the country can redraw who can see what books and how much it costs.

Despite tightening regulations in parts of EMEA, Europe's share of the value received is maintained, while the APAC implementation profile ensures that every border step in India feeds back into global liquidity management.

Depth now focuses on smaller compliant venues. This feature forms hedging and inventory routing as jurisdictions switch between regional blocks, license gates, and supervised return paths.

The framework that “the return of capital controls will be stealthy, API-level and instantaneous” is supported by the general platform block that began en masse in Russia in December and the exchange block that was rolled out across EMEA and APAC this year.

Compliance is becoming a market share strategy in Asia-Pacific, and India's registration, payroll and resume models are already showing up in the results of major platforms.

The double wall of Belarus' HTP border and restricted access to EU wallets means that storage and exit costs for residents will change, and these changes will be reflected in liquid markets.