Barclays expects 2026 to be another weak year for cryptocurrencies, with trading volumes trending downward and investor enthusiasm waning. In a wide-ranging year-end report released Friday, the bank cited a difficult backdrop for digital asset exchanges like Coinbase (COIN), with unclear triggers for reopening and a slow start to token adoption efforts.
Retail exchanges benefited from a surge in trading interest during last year's crypto bull market, but are now facing a more subdued environment. Barclays analysts noted that spot market trading volume, a key revenue driver for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood (HOOD), has cooled sharply. Without a clear spark to reignite demand, volumes are likely to remain depressed.
“Spot crypto trading volumes (…) appear to be on a downward trend in FY26, but it is not clear to us what will reverse this trend,” the analysts wrote.
Cryptocurrency markets tend to move in conjunction with major events such as policy announcements, product launches, and political changes. Barclays cited previous bursts of activity, including inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in March 2024 and the pro-crypto presidential victory in November, as key factors in the short-term surge. However, absent such events, the bank sees a lack of structural growth.
One area that could disrupt the market is regulation. Barclays highlighted the pending Clarity Act, a bill that would define the line between digital products and securities and clarify which US agencies, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the smaller Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), would regulate which assets. While this bill is not guaranteed to move the market, it has the potential to reduce operational uncertainty for crypto companies and investors alike. If passed, it could open the door to clearer product launches, especially in tokenized assets.
Coinbase continues to be a focus of Barclays' analysis. The company has expanded into derivatives and tokenized stock trading, but faces headwinds from shrinking spot trading volumes and rising operating costs.
“COIN has a number of growth initiatives as well as recent acquisitions that could start to have a greater impact,” the report states. Despite this, analysts lowered their price target to $291, citing a more conservative earnings outlook.
Tokenization continues to receive attention from both crypto-native and traditional financial companies. BlackRock (BLK), Robinhood (HOOD), and others are experimenting with products in this space. However, Barclays warns that this trend is in its early stages and is unlikely to have a material impact on earnings in 2026.
Meanwhile, the US political environment has turned more favorable for digital assets following recent elections. However, Barclays believes much of this optimism is already priced into the market. Legislative efforts like the CLARITY Act must pass the Senate and overcome possible legal challenges before it can have any practical impact.
In short, 2026 could be a transitional year for cryptocurrencies. With retail activity declining and no immediate tailwinds, companies are focusing on long-term bets such as tokenized finance and compliance upgrades. It remains unclear whether these investments will bear fruit next year or further down the line.
