Ethereum is struggling to regain momentum after failing to recover the $3,200 level, leaving the market in a fragile balance. Despite several recovery attempts, the price action suggests that the bulls are now more focused on defending the current demand zone than pursuing higher prices. The hesitation reflects broader uncertainty across cryptocurrency markets, with traders taking a cautious stance amid tightening liquidity and rising macro risks.
But beneath the surface, on-chain activity is starting to tell a more nuanced story. According to Lookonchain, data provided by Arkham shows an aggressive re-entry by major market players. The so-called 66kETHBorrow Whale, which had previously amassed 489,696 ETH worth about $1.5 billion, started buying Ethereum again when the price fell.
This behavior stands out because it occurs during bearish rather than bullish periods, a pattern typically associated with strategic accumulation rather than short-term speculation.
Whale activity during a downtrend often signals confidence that prices will rise over the long term, even when sentiment is weak. Ethereum still faces technical resistance, but the return of large buyers suggests that demand, while weak, has not disappeared.
Whale Accumulation Raises Questions Amid Ethereum Weakness
Lookonchain data provides additional insight into the recent activity of the 66kETHBorrow whale, highlighting sequences that have attracted significant market interest. Over the past eight hours, Whale borrowed approximately $85 million USDT from Aave and transferred the funds to Binance.
Soon after, he withdrew 38,576 ETH, worth about $119.3 million, from the exchange. This rapid movement of capital during a market decline has raised questions among smaller investors, many of whom are wondering whether the whales are acting on information or convictions that are not yet reflected in prices.
This behavior is often interpreted as deliberate accumulation, especially if ETH does not remain on the trading platform and is withdrawn from the exchange. Typically, exchange outflows reduce immediate sell-side liquidity, reinforcing perceptions of long-term positioning. However, it is important to acknowledge the limitations of on-chain visibility. These transactions only represent publicly identified and tracked wallets.
There is no certainty that this whale's exposure is completely transparent. He can hedge, short positions, or hold additional long exposure through other wallets, centralized exchanges, or derivatives markets, invisible on-chain. As a result, the activity suggests confidence but should not be interpreted as a definite confirmation of direction.
ETH price is below key moving averages.
Ethereum is currently trading near $3,150-$3,200 after a modest rebound, but the broader technical structure remains fragile. On the daily chart, ETH continues to trade below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which are currently acting as dynamic resistance. The recent bounce stalled near the declining 50-day MA, highlighting the lack of strong follow-through from buyers.
The 200-day moving average is located near $3,500 and remains well above the current price level. This reinforces that Ethereum is still in a correction phase within the larger macro uptrend. As long as the price stays below this long-term trend indicator, any attempts to move higher will likely face selling pressure from both swing traders and systematic strategies.
Price action over the past few weeks has confirmed a near-term bearish market structure, with a series of declines to highs following a rejection near $4,000 in October. However, ETH has been defending the $2,800-$2,900 support area so far, suggesting buyers are still active at lower levels.
For Ethereum to change momentum decisively, the bulls would need to regain and hold above the $3,300-$3,400 range. Failure to do so leaves open downside risk, with the possibility of retesting previous demand zones if market sentiment worsens.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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