Cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research said that while Bitcoin's long-discussed four-year cycle is still valid, the main driving force defining this cycle is no longer the halving of block rewards.
Markus Thielen, the company's research director, said that today's Bitcoin price movements are primarily shaped by the political situation, global liquidity situation, and election cycles.
According to Thielen, the Bitcoin market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter of those years. He argues that the timing of these peaks shows a strong correlation to the U.S. presidential election cycle and increased political uncertainty during elections, rather than a direct coincidence with the halving. Thielen points out that the fact that the half-life dates fall on different periods of each cycle weakens the decisive role of this effect.
The report also noted that Bitcoin has failed to gain strong upward momentum despite the Fed's interest rate cuts this year. Thielen said that while institutional investors are currently the dominant players in the crypto market, these investors are acting more cautiously in the current environment. He explained that uncertainty in the Fed's policy signals and tight global liquidity conditions have slowed capital inflows, weakening the momentum needed for Bitcoin's sustained price breakout.
According to 10x Research, unless there is a significant improvement in the liquidity situation, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a horizontal range and continue to consolidate in the short term. The report suggests that, rather than a rapid and parabolic rally, a period may prevail as markets digest current macroeconomic and political conditions.
*This is not investment advice.
