Is Bitcoin prepared for a breakout in 2026? Analysts weigh history against fundamentals

As the end of the year approaches, the outlook for the future is as follows: BitcoinAnd the broader crypto market is cautious at best. But some analysts say a bullish surprise could be in store for investors in 2026.

Bitcoin continued to fall from its all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th, but stabilized around $84,000 on November 22nd, indicating the end of sustained selling pressure. The relative strength index, which measures the momentum of the underlying asset, fell below the oversold level of 30.

This has happened five times since 2023, and each time Bitcoin's subsequent trajectory has been bullish. If history repeats itself, this pattern suggests the top cryptocurrency could rise to $170,000 within three months, according to analysis by Julian Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor.

“Unless you think the 4-year cycle is still in play (which we don't), this chart should hold up for a long time given the circumstances,” Bittel said in a tweet Wednesday.

Other analysts recommend caution, viewing such patterns as supportive rather than predictive. “While these historical patterns provide useful context for market sentiment, I would treat them as conditional bullish rather than deterministic,” said Bitunics analyst Dean Chen. decryption.

“RSI below 30 usually signals capitulation and deleveraging, after which prices tend to stabilize and recover, but it does not guarantee that the same trajectory will repeat,” Chen said. “Forecasts towards $170,000…depend largely on macro liquidity, monetary policy and broader risk appetite.”

Broader historical patterns also favor a rebound. For more than a decade, Bitcoin has had a year of decline followed by a year of strength. Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance has declined by about 5%, and a negative closing price in 2025 would historically set the stage for a positive one in 2026.

In this regard, Chen pointed out that this “highlights Bitcoin's cyclical mean reversion, rather than automatic upward acceleration.” Essentially, these factors “support a constructive medium- to long-term outlook, although the near-term path may still be subject to volatility and further testing,” he said.

Bitcoin is up 0.7% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at around $88,000, according to data from CoinGecko.

Sentiment remains cautious, with users owning prediction market Myriad. decryption's parent company Dastan puts the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before $69,000 at 61%. This number has remained roughly the same for over a week, despite multiple attempts by the top cryptocurrency to break above $90,000.

Emphasis on the basics

Beyond past patterns, fundamental drivers and institutional realities suggest a solid structure for the year ahead.

Matt Hogan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, previously said, “The recent market downturn is due to two temporary factors.” decryptionsaid that “investors … are selling in anticipation of a four-year cycle” and that concerns from the “October 10 leverage washout” persist. He believes that once these conditions pass, a sustained rise will begin.

The macro environment itself can be the fuel. Hogan describes this as a “win on heads, win on tails” position, where both economic strength and stimulus-induced weakness are seen as tailwinds for cryptocurrencies.

The most specific bullish case is in institutional adoption. Hogan called the ETF's trajectory “incredibly bullish,” noting that “trillions of dollars” have been given access to the market by major carriers and predicting 2026 will be “a year of record inflows.”

This growth could also lead to cryptocurrencies charting their own course. Hogan expects the correlation with equities to be “low” as “crypto-specific factors” such as tokenization and institutionalization will be the main drivers of price, suggesting a mature market is moving based on its own fundamentals.