Bitcoin (BTC) is entering its final phase of 2025, entering a narrow but crucial period to end 2025 in the green. According to leading analysts, for the flagship cryptocurrency to end 2025 higher than it started, it would need to rise about 6.24% above its opening price for the year (approximately $93,374).
Nick Pucklin, CEO of a cryptocurrency analysis firm that tracks BTC price trends, said: 6.24% Bitcoin needs a rally to end the year higher than it started the year. Otherwise, This is the first down year after the halving event since the protocol's supply reduction cycle became the driving force for the market.
As of late December, Bitcoin is Mid-to-high $80,000s, roughly $87,000 to $90,000, struggling to build sustainable upside in a thin end of the year market.
Packlin's comments come as Glassnode Principal Analyst James Cech said Bitcoin can maintain its momentum without a drop in gold or silver. According to Sunday × In the post, James points out that gold and silver don't need to slow down for Bitcoin to perform well, adding that anyone who thinks otherwise may not fully understand these assets.
Recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin's value compared to gold could fall by up to 50%. BTC is currently trading at around 20 times the value of gold. But Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes it's more likely that gold will fall 10 times in value by 2026 than rise 30 times. We believe that even if the price in USD appears stable, the value of the token compared to gold could be halved.
Bitcoin plummets 30% from October peak
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $125,000 in October, just days before a historic market crash put a damper on Bitcoin's gains and caused an overall decline in cryptocurrency prices.
Since hitting an all-time high, BTC prices have fallen by about 30%, bottoming out at around $80,000 in November. This has led analysts to analyze whether the Bitcoin bull market is behind us or whether a new bear market has begun.
Meanwhile, volatility indicators for 2025 show increased movement and less speculative interest. Bitcoin trading analysts note that the cryptocurrency is currently trading below key long-term technical levels such as the 365-day moving average, a move that many analysts see as a signal of weakening structural price support.
Market analysts are divided on whether a recovery will occur or whether the decline will continue into the new year, often focusing on macroeconomic and liquidity factors that influence the prices of major cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin has been trading well below its 365-day moving average, a key support level, since November, breaking a structural uptrend that began two years ago.
Cryptocurrency market sentiment rises due to Fed rate cut
Lower interest rates are a positive catalyst for the prices of risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies, which tend to rise due to the injection of new liquidity.
The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points (BPS) three times in 2025, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell offered mixed forward guidance at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December.
Chairman Powell said, “There is no risk-free path to policy,'' and cast doubt on further rate cuts at the FOMC's next meeting in January.
According to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group's FedWatch, tool, Only 18.8% of investors expected a rate cut in January.
With only a few trading days left in 2025, all eyes are on whether the Bitcoin price will be able to generate profits. just before Larry. If the ~6.24% rally is successful, BTC could buck the broader trend and end the year on a positive note maintaining a psychological and technical milestone for market participants.
If you're reading this, you're already ahead of the curve. Please use our newsletter.
