Bitcoin just lost $90,000, but a quiet rally in energy markets suggests the pain is not over yet

Bitcoin traded around $86,800 on Monday morning, after reversing Sunday's move above $90,000 on the back of rising oil prices and falling gold.

TradingView's 30-minute Bitcoin vs. USD chart shows BTC peaking around $90,000 before sliding into the US mid-morning.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose about 1.77%, gold fell about 1.74%, and the U.S. 10-year interest rate gauge fell about 0.44%, with yields near 4.00%.

The cross-asset mix bids below energy and is dominated by metals and duration, which could tighten financial conditions as markets price in further inflationary pressures.

The oil industry's move followed geopolitical developments over the weekend and renewed focus on supply risks in the Middle East. According to Reuters, the rise was due to a decline in year-end liquidity.

Gold's decline also erased the tailwinds that had supported the “hard asset” positioning.

The precious metals market rose sharply and then fell back to record high levels, weighing on profit-taking in gold and silver.

When correlations between assets tighten, falling metal prices can reduce marginal bids and spill into Bitcoin along with commodity exposure.

Interest rates were mixed in the intraday snapshot, even as the 10-year Treasury yield fell.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was near 4.1% through late December, according to Trading Economics.

In the case of Bitcoin, the real yield and dollar value are often more important than the nominal yield. Higher real yields may raise the bar for holding non-yielding assets, while lower real yields may provide more room for risk allocation.

Derivatives positioning could gain momentum around the new year

In Deribit, when year-end options expire significantly, there can be a period in which dealers and funds restructure their hedges. Spots can move quickly if liquidity is spotty.

It topped $90,000 over the weekend and quickly returned to the mid-$80,000 range, which is perfect for a tape like that. Hedge flows and deleveraging are likely to dominate price discovery in the short term, even without crypto-specific headlines.

Bitcoin’s next impulse could come from a US macro release rather than a crypto-native catalyst.

Pending home sales in the US will be released on Monday, Case-Shiller home prices and Chicago PMI will be released on Tuesday, and Federal Reserve Board minutes will be released on Wednesday.

Barron's cited the minutes as important reading on how policymakers are charting inflation risks and policy paths to 2026.

Energy traders are also keeping an eye on weekly U.S. inventory data for whether oil price movements hold after the initial geopolitical impulse.

For traders, cross-market information is direct

If oil auctions that raise inflation expectations continue, long-term assets and high-beta trades, including cryptocurrencies, may come under pressure. Cooling the crude oil helps relieve some of the pressure.

As for interest rates, even if the dollar does not move significantly, conditions could tighten if the 10-year Treasury yield rises again from the low-4% range. The drifting decline could once again open up space for Bitcoin to retest the levels it failed at over the weekend.

On the chart, the weekend rejection zone near $90,000 is currently positioned as overhead supply, which could potentially overlap with stop orders and profit taking.

On the downside, the mid-$80,000 range is the first area of ​​demand during the downturn. A drop below this area could expose the low $80,000s that have been bid on thus far.

If oil prices remain strong and bond market prices increase inflation risk until the end of the Fed's minutes, sellers could seek more liquidity below the mid-$80,000s.

If oil cools and yields remain subdued, Bitcoin could rotate between the mid-$80,000s and $90,000s region as post-expiry flows normalize.