CryptoQuant says Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound as the market enters 2026, with no clear structural signals indicating a sustained bullish or bearish trend. The rating is based on a new research note that evaluates macro conditions, derivatives activity, and key on-chain metrics. Analysis shows that Bitcoin continues to trade in a volatile range. While the long-term recruitment theme remains, the near-term price direction lacks certainty. Analysts described the current settings as conditionally neutral or slightly bearish.
Scope-limited structure considered as base case
CryptoQuant has outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin in 2026. Among them, the most likely outcome is considered to be a wide trading range. Under this base case, Bitcoin could trade between $80,000 and $140,000 throughout the year. The study identified the $90,000 to $120,000 zone as the most active core range.
Analysts said prices were supported by intermittent capital movements, mainly in ETFs. But it's not enough to drive a sustained breakout. He added that expectations for interest rate cuts remain in the background. However, the upward momentum is limited due to weak recovery in the real economy and cautious investors. As a result, price movements remain reactive rather than trend-driven.
Downside and upside scenarios remain conditional
The report also outlined downside scenarios related to macro stress. Bitcoin could fall below $80,000 if recession risks deepen and risk assets face widespread deleveraging. In a more serious case, analysts said they could not rule out the possibility of the stock heading into the $50,000 region. However, this scenario was given a low probability. CryptoQuant noted that leverage has already declined sharply since late 2025.
This reduction reduces the risk of cascading liquidations even during periods of stress. On the positive side, the more optimistic scenario depends on several conditions coming together. These include early policy easing, steady ETF inflows, and improved macro confidence. If these factors come together, Bitcoin could rise towards $120,000 to $170,000. Still, the report emphasizes that the probability of this outcome remains low at this point.
On-chain and derivative signals indicate balance
Some on-chain indicators support ranged views. Foreign exchange reserves and net flows do not show strong accumulation or distribution trends. At the same time, futures open interest has normalized after peaking in mid-2025.
Graph 1 – Bitcoin Exchange Net Flow (Total) – All Exchanges from CryptoQuant
Chart 2 – Bitcoin: CryptoQuant Spend Return (SOPR)
Systemic Leverage Ratio. Track derivative exposure to market size. We're back to a more sustainable level. Analysts said the reset would reduce vulnerabilities but also dampen the explosive upside. CryptoQuant emphasized that no single metric defines a trend. Rather, the interaction between ETF flows, futures positioning, and long-term holder behavior will determine which scenario unfolds.
Market awaits clear confirmation
Currently, CryptoQuant claims that Bitcoin lacks the necessary structural support for a definitive trend. Analysts said the 2026 outlook remains flexible and could be reassessed as data evolves.
Chart 3 – Bitcoin: CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index
Until a stronger signal emerges, traders and investors are expected to operate within a defined range rather than chasing directional bets.
