Ethereum is attempting to regain the $3,100 level once again after days of speculation, hesitation and mixed signals across the broader cryptocurrency market. Although price action has shown signs of stabilizing, confidence remains limited and traders need to be cautious as Ethereum is hovering near a major inflection point. The bulls are trying to regain control, but the market is still trying to make sure the recent decline is fully realized.
Derivatives data provides important context to this integration phase, according to analysis published on CryptoQuant. Open interest across the Ethereum market currently stands at around $7.8 billion, and it is trading at around $3,100. This positioning is notable because it reflects a balanced environment. Open interest is neither the extreme lows that indicate liquidation of large positions nor the heated highs typically associated with excessive leverage and vulnerability.
Instead, the data suggests that market participants are primarily maintaining existing positions rather than aggressively exiting or entering new trades. This behavior is indicative of a compression phase where traders wait for a clearer directional catalyst before investing additional capital. This often precedes a sharp move, as volatility tends to escalate when prices break out of consolidation.
The interplay between price stability and continued public interest will be key as Ethereum tests this critical level. Whether this balance is resolved with a continuation of the bullish streak or a new downward move will likely define Ethereum's near-term trajectory.
An increase in open interest indicates a risk for Ethereum.
The report explains that Ethereum’s recent price behavior has become increasingly constructive when viewed in conjunction with derivatives data. During the last session, the price showed a slight upward trend and open interest continued to rise. This combination is important. This means that new positions are opened without meaningfully reducing existing exposure. In practice, market participants are engaged rather than alienated, and positioning is about building rather than relaxing.
At the same time, volatility begins to widen after a long period of compression. This type of environment often precedes decisive moves as pricing and positioning are narrowed to a narrower range. In particular, open interest has now recovered above the SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) moving averages. This change signals a new willingness to take risk in the leveraged market and confirms that traders are gradually increasing their exposure rather than reacting impulsively.
If Ethereum can continue to hold above the $3,000 level and open interest typically rises steadily rather than through a sudden spike prior to liquidation, the setup favors controlled, spot-led development. Under these conditions, the price could extend to the $3,700 level, which would represent a natural upside target for this structure.
Ethereum appears to be preparing for an imminent breakout. As open interest increases and demand improves, sharp moves are likely to become more and more likely. The market will definitely break through the $3,324 resistance level or clear through liquidation. The bias remains for a positive breakout towards $3,700, followed by a reassessment within the broader downtrend.
ETH is consolidating in an important long-term pivot area.
Ethereum’s price action on the weekly chart shows that the market is between structural support and unresolved bearish pressure. After failing to sustain momentum above the $4,000-$4,200 area in 2025, ETH entered a broad correction phase that pushed the price towards the $3,000 area where it is currently consolidating. The region has become a pivotal battleground, acting as a pivotal balance between buyers and sellers.
From a trend perspective, ETH is trading near its long-term moving averages, with the 200-week moving average providing dynamic support near the mid-$2,000 range. Being able to hold above this level means that the broader upward trend from the 2022 lows has not yet been nullified. However, prices remain below the falling short-term average, highlighting that bullish momentum remains weak and the rally continues to face supply.
Structurally, the market is forming a wide consolidation range roughly between $2,700 and $3,400. A sustained hold above $3,100 would keep ETH range-bound but would not confirm a trend reversal.
For bulls, regaining and holding the $3,300-$3,400 resistance zone would be the first sign of renewed strength and a potential path to higher levels. Until then, Ethereum remains vulnerable to further downside volatility if support near $2,800-$2,700 is revisited.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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