Bitcoin's price ended last year in the red, despite hitting record highs with valuations exceeding six digits multiple times. Although the market leader has made a good start heading into 2026, concerns still swirl about BTC's outlook in the coming months, especially in relation to the four-year cycle theory.
Why $65,000 is important in this cycle
In a recent post on the X Platform, Julian Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, addressed the current structure of the Bitcoin price. Market experts said the premium cryptocurrency has experienced a lull in recent months and is lagging behind other assets such as gold in 2025.
Timmer revealed that Bitcoin is moving away from its historically steep power law trajectory and is instead following the internet's S-curve. This structural change has also opened the door to continued debate about Bitcoin's typical cyclical behavior.
Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is now over, and a new structural upswing appears to be taking root in the market, according to multiple experts. Proponents of “Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over” often point to institutional adoption and physical exchange-traded funds as evidence of a new bull market structure.
While Timmer agrees that the BTC halving event is becoming less relevant, the Fidelity global macro director dismissed the idea that there is no longer a bear market for the premium cryptocurrency. “While I'm skeptical that the power of the halving cycle will weaken (which I agree with), I'm skeptical of the idea that bear markets will never happen again,” Timmer said.
Speaking from a technical perspective, Timmer cited the last cycle high of $65,000 as a key level for Bitcoin price. Meanwhile, the next important level is near the power law trendline at $45,000.
Source: @TimmerFidelity on XFor context, a power law is a mathematical model that suggests Bitcoin's growth follows a predictable and consistent trajectory. This indicator is often used in price analysis to identify key levels and shows the correlation between BTC's value and time.
Timmer noted that while the power law trend line is far from BTC's current price, it could rise to $65,000 if the flagship cryptocurrency enters a prolonged downturn next year. This could make the $65,000 level an even more important zone for Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin price overview
As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $90,520 with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
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