Willy Wu denies claims that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is over, insisting that price data still supports its traditional rhythm until at least 2026. He likens social media misconceptions to assuming there is no heartbeat when the heart rate changes.
“Heartbeat” analogy
On-chain analyst Willy Wu is pushing back against growing skepticism about Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, rejecting the idea that the pattern is over. Wu says the data does not support the “death of the cycle” theory, at least not yet. He argues that the traditional rhythm will remain the most accurate model for the market until Bitcoin's price trend picks up further into 2026 and begins to exhibit truly non-cyclical behavior.
To illustrate his point, Wu uses a medical analogy to explain how social media often misinterprets data. He explains that even if your heart beats at 70 bpm and drops slightly during sleep, that doesn't mean your resting heartbeat is no longer present just because the timing has changed. Analysts suggest that the underlying pulse of the four-year cycle, driven by supply and demand mechanisms, remains fundamentally sound, although external factors may cause some shifts in timing and intensity.
read more: Has Bitcoin's 4-year cycle been broken due to its unexpected end in 2025?
Wu's position is in direct contrast to a growing list of industry heavyweights who believe that the 2024-2026 period marks a permanent change in Bitcoin's macro reality. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hogan and researcher Ryan Rasmussen argue that the forces that previously drove these cycles, such as halvings and leveraged bankruptcies, are much weaker than in the past.
These influential figures believe that the massive influx of institutional capital through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is creating a long bull market without the 80% crash of the past, effectively consigning the old cycle to the dustbin of history.
Mature market forecast
Similarly, experts interviewed by Bitcoin.com News emphasized that institutional capital flows and ETF demand, rather than the halving of miner fees, are shaping Bitcoin's trajectory. This change created a slower, more steady movement rather than the rapid boom-and-bust pattern of previous cycles. Overall, these experts believe Bitcoin has outgrown its halving-driven DNA.
They argue that markets are now shaped by institutional adoption and macroeconomic forces, making the old four-year cycle obsolete as a predictive model. Rather, they argue that Bitcoin's future will reflect broader financial markets, with less explosive gains and more long-term stability.
read more: The Death of the 4-Year Cycle: Experts on Bitcoin's New Macro Reality
Meanwhile, in response to critics questioning his credibility, Wu denied claims that his hedge fund collapsed in 2020. “No, it was Murad's fund,” Wu explained. “My first fund was Crest in 2022, which is four years old, still operational and delivering consistent returns. In fact, we run three institutional funds, including SyzCrest in partnership with Syz Banking Group.”
When asked what is supporting this cycle beyond historical precedent, Wu cited two main factors: the internal supply halving shock and the four-year global liquidity cycle that determines risk-on/risk-off behavior. “The two effects are the halving of the internal supply shock and the four-year global liquidity cycle that determines risk on/off,” Wu said, noting that Bitcoin has historically led macro markets to a risk-off environment. “After the last three, what is debatable is whether a fourth one is happening now that will cover 100% of BTC’s existence.”
Some supporters of his view add that the current federal injection of billions of dollars into the market will eventually hit the risk curve, fueling the cyclical expansion that Wu expects to continue.
Frequently asked questions ❓
- Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle really over? On-chain analyst Willy Wu says the data still supports the rhythm of the cycle.
- Why do some experts say this cycle is over? Institutional ETF flows and macro forces are expected to be stronger drivers than the halving.
- What does Mr. Wu cite as evidence for cycles? He points out that supply shocks will be halved and global liquidity will rise for the first time in four years.
- What impact will this debate have on investors around the world? Markets may shift from boom-bust cycles to more stable, macro-linked growth.
