The idea of ”safe shelter” assets (the gold and government bonds are traditionally marked” is unprecedentedly testing the turmoil in the AMID market.
For decades, portfolio construction and risk management have been simple: 60% of stocks, 40% of bonds, and when the market panics, capital flowed into regular money and government bonds. These assets are slow, stable and predictable, making them ideal safe havens for investors seeking protection against volatility. However, in the 24/7 market world, geopolitical instability, growing distrust in sovereign systems, turns that logic into your mind and asks questions.
Enter new kids in the block: Bitcoin.
It is extremely unstable, widely misunderstood, and is often dismissed as a speculative asset by many corners of Wall Street and Main Street. However, since the low Covid-19 market, it has staged an extraordinary run.
It has increased by more than 1,000% since the Covid-19 market collision in March 2020. During that same period, long-term bonds were measured via Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond ETFs (TLTs), down 50% from their 2020 high. Even gold, a safe haven asset that has been tested at 90% safe in five years, is less impressive when it is adjusted for a financial decline in 2020 alone, where more than 40% of the US dollar's supply is printed.
Still, Bitcoin's safe shelter qualifications are under contest by investors.
In some recent risk-off events, it was not like hedges, but acted like a high-beta risk asset against the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF.
- Covid-19 (March 2020): BTC declined by 40%, QQQ declined by 27%
- Banking Crisis (March 2023): BTC -14%, QQQ -7%
- Yen trade rewind (August 2024): BTC -20%, QQQ -6%
- Tariff-led sale (April 2025): BTC -11%, QQQ -16%
Market Response to Events: (cordingView)
The first three examples show that Bitcoin is something like leveraged technology trade. However, recent tariff shocks have broken the pattern. Bitcoin has fallen below the Nasdaq and has shown relative strength in an otherwise weak macro environment spurred by President Trump's tariffs.
These data points may not be trending, but this evolving behavior highlights a broader phenomenon. The global financial background has changed.
“Legacy non-sorber stores should work, just like Bitcoin,” the Nydig study said in a note. “Politically neutral assets should be exempt from the global conspiracy that is currently playing.”
Bitcoin is volatile, but yes, it is globally liquid, decentralized, censor-resistant and immune to tariff or central bank policies. In an age of geopolitical tensions and financial repression, these attributes begin to make assets appear more permanent than other safe shelters.
On the other hand, traditional safe havens don't look that safe. When compared with the scale of gold expansion, gold profits are less impressive. Long-term bonds are not that good as long-term bonds are closer to 5% in 30 years, and are painful for a long-term portfolio.
Since the sale began last Thursday, NASDAQ has fallen by nearly 10%, Bitcoin has fallen by 6%, TLT has fallen by over 4%, and gold has slipped over 3%. Meanwhile, the DXY index, which tracks the US dollar against a basket of foreign currency, remains relatively flat, with the extremely important US 10-year financial yields skyrocketing nearly 8%.
On a risk-adjusted basis, Bitcoin holds its position. It's not worse than traditional safe inventory assets like gold and TLT.
When we look at these four major crisis events, patterns emerge. : Each sale of Bitcoin has marked a significant long-term bottom. During Covid Crash, BTC fell to ~$4,000. This is a level that I never saw again. During the banking crisis in March 2023, it temporarily fell below $20,000 before climbing again. In August 2024, Yen Carry Trade Rodind reduced it to $49,000. Again, it's at a level where it's not back again. If history is a guide, then this current low place takes us anywhere, it may well establish the next long-term floor.
So is Bitcoin a safe haven?
If old framing – low volatility and downside protection during panic – is still held, BTC is lacking.
However, in a financial world dominated by sovereign risk, inflation, and constant policy uncertainty, Bitcoin begins to look like an asset investors may need to consider for durability, neutrality and liquidity.
In this evolving landscape, it may be that Bitcoin has not failed the Safe Haven Test. Maybe the old playbook of what a safe haven is going to need to be changed.
