Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., in his analysis of the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market, said the current bull cycle is on a solid foundation and the market is more mature.
Adler Jr. said Bitcoin has only experienced two deep fixes since the Bull Cycle, which began in November 2022. He said that after these pullbacks exceeded 30% in August 2024 and April 2025, prices quickly recovered and reached new highs. Pullbacks for all other periods remained in the 10-20% range, acting as a classic “shakeout” and did not disrupt the uptrend.
Adler Jr. said the weekly simple moving average (SMA)-based decline is currently -7%, with current pullbacks being limited to -4.7%, indicating a mild integration process in the $100-106,000 range.
Adler Jr. said the repeated “deep corrected accumulation-accumulation-new rise” cycle in the market was also evident in this bull market, with this retracement gradually narrowing, which is a strong signal of market maturation. He said strong support of $96,000 continues to drive bull trends, with a new all-time high (ATH) to be seen, unless there is a serious negative news flow.
Another important data that Adler Jr. focused on was the BTC flow in centralized exchange (CEX). The average daily total flow (input + output) volume has dropped to 40,000 BTC, reaching its lowest level in the last decade. This shows that investors tend to withdraw BTC from the exchange and hold them for a long time, indicating a potential liquidity shortage in the market.
The weekly netflow remains negative at –4,300 BTC, indicating that the amount of coins deposited is behind the amount withdrawn. However, the 30-day average inflow/outflow is comparable to the end of 2023 and the beginning of the bull market. Adler Jr. noted that this data indicates that demand for Bitcoin remains strong.
*This is not investment advice.
