According to Bitcoin analyst Willy Wu, it is unlikely that Strategy (MSTR) will be forced to sell Bitcoin in the next big market downturn. According to Saylor Tracker, Strategy holds approximately 641,205 Bitcoins, a stake worth approximately $64 billion at current prices.
Convertible bonds offer flexibility
Most of Strategy's debt is senior convertible bonds with rights established by the holder on September 15, 2027. Based on Wu's calculations, Strategy would need its stock to trade above $183 before or after that date to avoid selling Bitcoin to meet the obligation.
This stock price level is consistent with the Bitcoin price of around $91,502, assuming a multiple net asset value (mNAV) of 1. The company can settle the conversion with cash, common stock, or a combination of both, an option that gives management breathing room during volatile markets.
Will MSTR be liquidated in the next bear market? I doubt it,
This is their debt, the debt due date, and the price that MSTR stock needs to exceed to prevent a partial liquidation of the BTC treasury to pay the debt. BTC equivalent price assumes mNAV 1.0 pic.twitter.com/AzVgecI7i2
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 4, 2025
Market trends put pressure on the short term
Strategy stock fell nearly 6.7% on the day, closing at a seven-month low of $246.99. Bitcoin was trading at $102,004, down 9% over the past seven days, according to Coingecko data.
Based on the report, some market watchers say it would take a very long and significant decline for Strategy to be forced to sell Bitcoin. One analyst said: For the company to liquidate, Bitcoin's performance would need to deteriorate significantly over an extended period of time. These words reflect the view that the company is isolated but not immune.
The risk of partial sales looms
Willy Woo added a warning. He suggested that a partial sell-off could occur if Bitcoin does not rise rapidly during the expected 2028 bull market. According to reports, this scenario will not be caused by just one bad week, but by a slow recovery and weaker strategic stocks as debt comes due.
Other public forecasts remain much more bullish. ARK Invest's Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have both stated that their goal for BTC is $1 million by 2030.
BTCUSD trading at $101,849 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView
Debt structure and realistic choices
Setting up a convertible note means the company won't face an automatic margin call that would force it to sell immediately. Since the conversion can be settled in stocks, the pressure shifts to MSTR's stock price rather than Bitcoin alone.
But that connection also ties the strategy's fortunes more closely to investors' desire for stocks that mirror Bitcoin's movements.
Short-term drop, long-term test
The strategy appears to be broadly protected from typical bear markets. However, calculations show clear cut points. Approximately $1 billion of debt is due on or before the holder's put date noted above.
If both Bitcoin and MSTR stock underperform for an extended period of time, a correction may be necessary. Leading analysts currently say a liquidation is unlikely in the next economic downturn, but warn that 2028 will be a critical year for whether a sale will be necessary.
Featured images from outside BozemanTradingView chart
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