Arthur Hayes predicts that as regulations become more crypto-friendly, stock discovery will shift to 24/7 cryptocurrency perpetual trading, putting pressure on traditional exchanges.
summary
- Hayes argues that BitMEX-style perpetual swaps are better than term futures because they concentrate liquidity, offer high leverage and limited legal recourse.
- He points to HyperLiquid's HIP-3 and Nasdaq 100 Perpetual as early evidence that stock criminals can gain real trading volume on unauthorized crypto platforms.
- Hayes links this change to the loosening of U.S. regulatory attitudes under the Trump administration, and predicts that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will take the lead by the late 2020s.
In a recent public statement, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that crypto-style perpetual futures will replace traditional stock exchanges, saying that stock discovery will move to a 24/7 perpetual market on crypto platforms.
Arthur Hayes makes bold cryptocurrency predictions
The forecast comes as U.S. and Asian exchanges, including CBOE and SGX, prepare to introduce their own perpetual products by the end of 2025, Hayes said. He characterized this development as an “adapt or die” moment for traditional finance, saying that if existing exchanges fail to adopt crypto's perpetual model and socialized loss margin system, they risk losing liquidity and relevance to crypto exchanges and decentralized exchanges.
Hayes explained how BitMEX has transformed crypto trading by creating perpetual swaps, a futures-like product with no expiry date, by consolidating liquidity into a single contract that tracks spot prices while allowing for high leverage. He said the open-ended system, combined with a socialized loss system and insurance fund, provides individual traders with greater leverage and access to deep liquidity, while limiting the legal risk of initial margin in the event of a trade failing.
According to Hayes' statement, Hayes highlighted HyperLiquid's HIP-3. This is a permissionless protocol that allows a company called XYZ to permanently issue Nasdaq 100 shares, and currently a significant amount is traded every day. He predicted that perpetual shares will become a dominant product in 2026, with both centralized exchanges and decentralized platforms competing to list perpetual shares by the end of the year.
Mr. Hayes also mentioned changes in the U.S. regulatory environment. He said the regulatory environment changed in 2025 under the Trump administration, which took a more favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies after years of enforcement actions and legal proceedings with the CFTC following the collapse of FTX. He said the changes enabled sandbox-style experimentation with new derivatives, encouraged global regulators to follow U.S. policy, and gave exchanges such as SGX confidence to pursue permanent listings.
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Hayes predicted that by the late 2020s, the largest derivatives on major U.S. benchmarks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, will be perpetual transactions traded on crypto exchanges, rather than futures listed on CME or other existing platforms. He said traditional clearinghouses face constraints from undercapitalized guarantee funds, restrictive rules on retail leverage, and traditional business hours that are incompatible with 24/7 information flow. Perpetual swaps allow traders to post less collateral while accessing meaningful exposure, reducing the need to park large sums of money on exchanges after multiple industry hacks and failures, Hayes said.
According to blockchain analysis, recent on-chain data shows that Hayes has liquidated significant positions in several altcoins following the market plunge, despite previous indications that he does not intend to profit from his ETH holdings. Hayes recently praised social media platform X's Privacy Coin for posting triple-digit monthly gains that outpaced the broader altcoin market.
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