Plan C, an analyst and creator of the Bitcoin Quantile Model, just posted a series of charts that support the idea that Bitcoin will repeat its cycle playbook as it trades around $87,661.
This set is framed by a macro mix in which demand for physical assets, particularly gold, is maintained, while cyclical indicators remain weak. This combination could change the timing of the rally and pullback, even if Bitcoin's long-term direction holds.
Plan C commented:
“Assuming this Bitcoin cycle will be exactly like previous Bitcoin bull markets could be one of the biggest financial mistakes of this decade.”
Two charts attributed to TechDev_52 plot Bitcoin against a PMI-style “business cycle” series. These show that Bitcoin is holding up while the cycle indicators are trending down.
The latest value of the US ISM manufacturing PMI for November was 48.2, indicating a contraction trend. The next release covering December is scheduled for early January.
The report described continued soft demand and widespread manufacturing conditions consistent with readings below 50.
This split will test pricing in 2026
If the market leans toward easing policy and monetary conditions, Bitcoin could trade more like a liquidity-sensitive asset than a growth-sensitive asset. That way, the strength could persist even if the PMI dips below 50.
Even if liquidity support does not materialize, the resiliency of a series of business cycles reduces the margin for error. Retracements may arrive sooner.
Plan C's “Bitcoin quantile model” moves the discussion away from analogy and toward a statistical “Where are we in history?” approach. Rather than issuing point-in-time predictions, this model places today's price within Bitcoin's long-term distribution and maps quantile bands across the horizon.
In a snapshot aligned to a spot around $87,620, Bitcoin sits around the 30th quintile. Despite trading near the previous cycle's high in dollar terms, it remains below the model's median lane.
Quantile bands also provide a structured way to describe paths rather than targets.
Using $87,661 as a reference level, the three-month band on the chart spans approximately $80,000 at the 15th quantile and $127,000 at the median. The top bands are approximately $164,000 (85th place) and $207,000 (95th place).
The one-year bands shown are approximately $103,000 (15th), $164,000 (50th), $205,000 (85th), and $253,000 (95th).
These levels are distribution waypoints, not hit rate claims. Still, it fixes how far the price has to move to change its placement within the framework.
| horizon | Quantile band (from chart) | level | Move vs $87,661 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 15q | $80,000 | -8.7% |
| 3 months | 50q | $127,000 | +44.9% |
| 3 months | 85q | $164,000 | +87.1% |
| 3 months | 95q | $207,000 | +136.2% |
| 1 year | 15q | $103,000 | +17.5% |
| 1 year | 50q | $164,000 | +87.1% |
| 1 year | 85q | $205,000 | +133.9% |
| 1 year | 95q | $253,000 | +188.7% |
A panel linked to another PMI in the set normalizes the Bitcoin and cycle series into Z-scores. It highlights that Bitcoin's strength has not been matched by the rise in cyclical indicators.
The next few prints will create a regime test with three outcomes.
PMI could rebound and move in line with Bitcoin. PMI is likely to remain weak while Bitcoin continues to focus on its liquidity framework.
Alternatively, PMI could fall further as Bitcoin declines as positioning shifts towards risk reduction.
Another anchor is its performance relative to gold, highlighted in this BTC vs. gold chart credited to Gerd van Lagen.
Spot gold is trading around $4,458 per ounce, according to Kitco. This makes Bitcoin equivalent to around 19.7 ounces of gold per coin, close to Bitbo's reading, which is updated hourly.
If the gold price rise accelerates, there is a possibility that a rise in BTCUSD and a decline in the BTC-to-gold ratio will coexist. This changes how we define portfolio outperformance relative to Bitcoin and safe-haven exposure.
This chart focuses on whether this ratio maintains its structural territory while momentum indicators including the RSI remain under pressure. If the ratio stabilizes and the momentum line changes, that setting can be reversed.
Gold's rally in 2025 is tied to expectations for policy easing, dollar movements, geopolitics, and central bank demand.
Markets are also keeping an eye on the path to a potential rate cut in 2026.
In that context, BTC Gold becomes the second scoreboard alongside PMI.
If this ratio holds and starts forming higher lows, it would indicate that Bitcoin is improving relatively, even if gold remains strong. If things get worse, safe-haven preferences will continue to focus on gold.
Taken together, these charts show three paths forward over the next 6-12 months.
- A rebound in reflation is likely to combine improved PMI data with a rise in the BTC-to-gold ratio and a drift towards the median band of the quantile model.
- Easing policy will keep PMI below 50 while liquidity expectations support Bitcoin. As gold continues to be competitive, results are likely to cluster between the 15th and 50th quantile lanes.
- If the economic contraction deepens further, hard asset demand will likely continue to lean towards gold. It also increases the likelihood that prices will map toward lower quantile bands over shorter time periods.
The next ISM Manufacturing PMI release in early January will be the first near-term checkpoint to see whether the business cycle indicators start to turn.
