Bitcoin BTC$111,596.84 Bullrun has already stagnated due to continued sales from long-term holder wallets and slowing down ETF inflows. Worse, another unknown but important market variable appears to be against the BTC Bulls, signaling new challenges on the horizon.
That market variable is a mobile index created by Harley Basman, former managing director of Merrill Lynch. The index calculates implicit volatility using a weighted average of option prices in the Treasury options over multiple maturities (2, 5, 10, and 30 years). This approach captures the collective expectations of market participants about future interest rate movements.
The mobile index surged from 77 to 89 over three days, marking the sharpest rise since early April when President Donald Trump's tariffs shook global markets, including Bitcoin, which fell to $75,000.
More importantly, momentum indicators like MACD show clear bullish shifts, suggesting that the index is poised for ongoing profits. As captured by the Move Index, anticipated bond market volatility spells are known to cause liquidity around the world, so be careful on the part of the Bitcoin Bulls.
The US Treasury notes are widely regarded as high-quality liquid assets and form the basis for a global collateral pool, reduce credit risk for lenders, and help to promote smooth flow of funds across the financial markets.
Therefore, increasing volatility in Treasury banknotes tends to disrupt liquidity, increase borrowing costs, and create ripple effects across the credit market and the broader financial system. In this situation, lenders demand a higher risk premium, market participants pull back from the riskier assets, ultimately slowing down the flow of capital, and stressing the global market.
Additionally, increasing volatility in Treasury bonds often encourages bondholders to reduce their term risk by shifting from long-term bonds (such as 10 or 30-year Treasury) to short-term securities such as 2-year bonds and Treasury bills.
This “flight to quality” or “flight to safety” usually involves broader market divestment to reduce exposure to stocks, corporate bonds and other risky assets in order to maintain capital amidst the volatility of the financial market.
It is therefore not surprising that historically higher BTC prices have been characterized by a trend that reduces the trend in the mobility index and vice versa.
To cut tracking, the latest bounces in the mobile index could exacerbate the pain in the BTC market and deepen price pull.
