The short-term bullish drivers of Bitcoin (BTC) and the worsening technical outlook have encouraged one analyst to plan bids at a lower price level and take advantage of potential market freakouts.
“We'll leave a bid of $94,000 and $82,000 for Freakout,” said Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets.
“If my views on re-acceleration, fiscal control, and Pud-as-Puppet-Show are correct, Bitcoin will ultimately benefit. But today it's trading like a dangerous asset, not a valuable storage.
Donnelly explained that the Digital Assets Treasury (DATS) epidemic or the adoption of companies as financial assets for BTC is declining, weakening the seasonal impacts associated with half of Bitcoin events.
Historical data shows that the Bitcoin bull market typically peaks 16-18 months after the harving event, followed by the bear market for the next year. With the last half of the incident occurred in April 2024, this pattern suggests that the current Bull Run may be nearing its end, potentially leading to a long-term bearish.
However, some observers argue that institutionalisation of BTC via ETF is changing the market and that the harving cycle is no longer effective. This is no longer effective as miners flows account for less than 5% of the market volume.
Speaking of technical outlook, Donnelly focused on Bitcoin's double-top, bearish reversal pattern.
“After the 'Douvish' Jackson Hole speech from Powell was a red flag, there was a Bitcoin weekend dump and now I think I have the first of Crypto Week at the White House and the second bittop of the Esparty hosted by Bitmine,” he said.
BTC Daily Chart. (tradingView/coindesk)
Last week, Bitcoin fell below $111,982, confirming a double-top breakdown, signaling a shift from bullish to bearish trends.
Since then, prices have returned to that level with classic failure and retest patterns (now turned to resistance). Markets often revisit important breakdown points to assess seller strength before promoting a larger decline.
In other words, BTC is currently at the inflection point. A clean break above the above levels will weaken the bearish case. On the other hand, lower turns strengthen the bearish pattern and opens deeper sliding doors.
Friday's US Non-Agricultural Salary Report could prove conclusive. A stronger reading than expected could undermine your Federal Reserve's bets on rate reductions, which could lead to a drop in Bitcoin. In anticipation of bearish results, some traders are purchasing CME's underrated BTC put options.
Read: Bitcoin Trader Braces NFP Shocks in Hedge Play
