Bitcoin (BTC) traded at the top of the air gap range of $108,000 to $116,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve Conference on September 17th, and relies on policy messages.
BTC traded at $115,046.29 as of press time, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin needs a sustained break of more than $116,000 resistance to signal update momentum towards higher targets, according to a report from Bitfinex Alpha.
On the other hand, not breaking resistance could prompt you to retest the support level of $107,500.
On-chain data shows that short-term holders are aware of $189 million in daily profits.
The report noted that the position of Bitcoin in range resistance is particularly consequential to the FOMC results.
A critical recovery of over $116,000 opens a pathway for meaningful recovery, but range-coupled actions continue until clearer monetary policy signals emerge.
Rate reduction scenarios drive market position
MEXC chief analyst Sean Young expects extreme volatility as traders readjust their expectations.
In the memo, he said that Dub's Fed's outlook with an aggressive mitigation signal could drive Bitcoin from $120,000 to $125,000 as capital rotates from bonds to risky assets.
However, careful messages about future cuts could cause a rewind of leveraged positions and trigger a retest of support between $107,000 and $108,000.
Young said:
“Bitcoin is currently at the heart of macroeconomic tensions and can be driven in either direction depending on the Fed's policy direction.”
He added that if a hawkish tone appears, the altcoin will face certain pressure. Fabian Dori, director of investment at Sygnum Bank, pointed to predictions that complicate the complex background.
While weakness in the labour market supports reductions, sticky inflation at nearly 3% and re-accelerating business activity creates conflicting signals that could urge the Fed to warn.
Technical breakouts depend on the tone of the Fed
The air gap range represents a critical period since the August high, when Bitcoin must overcome the resistance built up by redistribution of supply.
Valr CEO Farzam Ehsani stressed that maintained monetary easing is necessary for Bitcoin to challenge the $120,000-$125,000 level, but if liquidity support is insufficient, it could force a retest between $100,000 and $105,000.
Last week, a total of $2.3 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows marked the position of the institution ahead of the decision.
However, BTC's inadequate performance on gold and stocks reflects careful sentiment until a more clear mitigation trajectory emerges. The market is geared towards whipping volatility as the Fed navigates inflation risks for employment concerns.
As a result, Bitcoin's instructions will depend on whether policymakers will inform active accommodation or measured restraints in the coming months.
