Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the supply zone between $114,000 and $117,000 this week, hitting an all-time high of $126,900. The momentum has been supported by a strong resurgence in inflows into U.S.-traded Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which totaled more than $2.2 billion over the past week.
This massive flow of capital serves as a catalyst for progress, while at the same time Increased market exposure to adjustment and revised scenarios. This is due to increased reliance on institutional flows and increased leverage.
According to data from Glassnode, the accumulation trend shows a return to purchases by small and medium-sized enterprises with portfolios of 10 to 1,000 Bitcoins.
On the other hand, large Bitcoin whales have been reducing their circulation since the beginning of the year. The mid-level holder lineup reinforces the idea of a more organic stage, while the $117,000 to $120,000 zone, where around 190,000 BTC changed hands, It will become decisive if the price fallspoints out the research company.
In the heat map below, we can see that the support level is currently above USD 117,000, as noted by Glassnode.
Market sensitive to profit taking
Sell-side risk index It also shows that investors are starting to take profits. Although profit-taking is still far from the peak of other cycles, the company asserts that price sensitivity to these sell-offs is more pronounced than it was a few months ago.
Meanwhile, open interest in futures surpassed recent highs, with leveraged long positions increasing significantly, topping $120,000. At the same time, annualized funding rates rose above 8%, reflecting the growing demand for speculative exposure.
According to Glassnode, the stages at which leverage growth historically accelerates are: led to rapid liquidation or short-term correction Rebalance the structure.
Implied volatilities have also increased from a bearish bias to a near-neutral bias in the options market, with renewed demand for hedging October expirations and increased interest in long-term contracts.
Adding these factors together suggests a mature bullish environment with higher institutional participation. But increasingly sensitive to profit-taking and the possibility of a fresh start. Glassnode hints at the effect of leverage.
Trust in seasonality
For Venezuelan Bitcoin and crypto investor Eleazar Colmenares, the seasonality of BTC and the market in general plays a key role. In his opinion, there is certainly solidity in this area He does not think there will be too severe a correction for the rest of October.
“I believe in seasonality. October has been a good month and I still think we will hit new all-time highs by the end of the month,” he told CriptoNoticias, adding that he has the same bullish outlook for the 10 major altcoins, especially if crypto ETFs are ultimately approved. The latter “would be a nice icing on the cake,” he recalls.
However, investment consultants believe that Glassnode will remain stable once it crosses the support zone of USD 117,000. As institutional flows weaken, that may not be enough.
“That level, $117,000, is not strong enough to withstand a bear market,” he laments. “I don't think it's a hard floor. On the other hand, the $110,000-$112,000 area looks more likely if the strength of capital inflows through ETFs weakens,” he says.
“It may sound silly, but this cycle is different,” Colmenares, who is also CEO of Cryptobuyers Venezuela, explains when asked about his enthusiasm for options and derivatives. Remember, this is “the first time we're seeing significant Wall Street participation” in emerging markets.
In fact, there has been some notable engagement with the Bitcoin market on Wall Street. ETFs issued and traded on the US stock market from 2024 onwards are: These were fundamental parts of the momentum BTC had last year..
To date, these vehicles have managed 1.5 million BTC, or 6.8% of the total supply of 21 million coins. Additionally, ETFs have injected more than $160 billion into the market in nearly two years.
We are in the utility market, not the meme coin era. (…) With no bearish warnings, global liquidity expanding and interest rates expected to fall in October, we are in a new and fertile environment for what is to come in the ecosystem.
Eleazar Colmenares, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency entrepreneur and investor.
What Colmenares expressed is in line with the vision of other analysts such as Javier Esparza Peribañez and Daniel Andres Pelaez, who believe that the massive injection of liquidity into the U.S. (and global) economy will ultimately benefit Bitcoin, as it has in the past. In fact, these experts predict that BTC could reach between USD 150,000 and USD 180,000 this year.
Furthermore, Arthur Hayes, financial analyst and founder of the BitMEX exchange, says that the traditional four-year cycle for the Bitcoin market is “over.” This is because the monetary policy decisions of world powers, namely the United States and China, will shape sector behavior. And indeed, they will have a favorable impact on digital assets. For him, there is no bear market on the horizon right now.
Overall, a combination of accumulation, record inflows into ETFs, increased volume, and increased exposure. Bitcoin’s bullish trend continues due to strong fundamentals. And while concentrated leverage and increased profit-taking pose an immediate risk that could materialize as a technical setback, a historically favorable fourth quarter for Bitcoin That won't change, and in fact will be bullish for the asset.
