Bitcoin (BTC)'s annual price candlestick is expected to end 2025 in the red, lower than it was at the beginning of the year, unless BTC can rise 6.24% above the year's opening price of approximately $93,374.
“There are three days left for Bitcoin to recover and end the year. If not, this year will end in the red for the first time since the halving. We need 6.24% to make this a green candle,” Packlin said.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $125,000 in October, just days before a historic market crash put a damper on Bitcoin's gains and sent crypto prices crashing across the board.
Bitcoin's 2025 candlestick is currently in the red, with only three days left in the year. sauce: nick packlin
Analysts are debating whether Bitcoin's bull market is over and a new bear market has begun, as BTC's price has fallen about 30% from its all-time high and formed a local bottom around $80,000 in November.
Market analysts have conflicting opinions on whether a recovery will materialize or whether the decline will continue into 2026, often focusing on macroeconomic factors and liquidity conditions that drive Bitcoin's price.
Related: Bitcoin Price, On-Chain Flow, and Global Macro: What Will Change in 2025?
All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve and whether interest rate cuts will continue.
Bitcoin has been trading well below its 365-day moving average, a key support level, since November, breaking the structural uptrend that began in 2023.
Bitcoin price has fallen below the 365-day moving average that has been in place since November. sauce: TradingView
Lower interest rates are a positive catalyst for the prices of risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies, which tend to rise due to the injection of new liquidity.
The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points (BPS) three times in 2025. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell issued mixed forward guidance at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December.
Chairman Powell said, “There is no risk-free path to policy,'' and cast doubt on further rate cuts at the FOMC's next meeting in January.
Only 18.8% of investors expected a rate cut in January, according to Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's FedWatch tool.
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