Ethereum is struggling to regain higher price levels as persistent resistance continues to limit upward momentum. Even after repeated failed recovery attempts, ETH remains stuck in a fragile structure that reflects widespread uncertainty across cryptocurrency markets. Analyst opinions remain mixed on the near-term outlook, but a growing number are speaking out about the risk of a broader bear market in 2026, citing weakening momentum, deteriorating sentiment and weak liquidity as key warning signs.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, on-chain activity is gaining attention again. According to data tracked by Arkham, a prominent Bitcoin OG known for accurately shorting the market during the sharp sell-off on October 10th made a significant move involving a significant Ethereum position. The scale and timing of this activity does not go unnoticed, especially considering its influence on trader performance and market sentiment.
The deal sparked speculation about intentions. Some market participants interpret this move as a defensive repositioning amidst rising downside risks, while others interpret it as a calculated adjustment ahead of increased volatility. Regardless of interpretation, large transfers from well-known companies tend to carry signaling value, especially when they occur during periods of technological vulnerability.
With Ethereum still stuck below key resistance levels, the market is now closely watching these on-chain developments to see whether they herald new selling pressure or signal a more complex change in positioning. With sentiment already tense, the upcoming session could prove pivotal for Ethereum's medium-term direction.
Ethereum whale transfer sparks positioning speculation
On-chain data shared by Lookonchain indicates significant movement by the so-called Bitcoin OG, a trader known to manage $717 million long exposure in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. A wallet associated with this entity deposited 100,000 ETH, worth approximately $292 million, into Binance, immediately attracting the attention of investors and analysts alike.
Given the size of the move and the trader's previous market influence, trading is widely viewed as a potential signal rather than a routine activity.
Several scenarios stand out as the most likely explanations. The simplest one is risk management. By moving ETH to an exchange, holders can reduce their exposure by selling spot ETH or opening a hedge through derivatives to protect their existing long-term portfolio amid rising volatility. Another possibility is collateral management. Large traders often transfer assets to exchanges to support margin requirements or re-leverage, especially during periods of falling prices.
A less bearish interpretation also remains on the table. A deposit may be part of a short-term tactical trade that allows for rapid execution without indicating an intention to liquidate the position completely. In some cases, large holders move assets between custodians or exchanges for operational reasons, but timing makes this unlikely.
After all, a deposit does not guarantee an outright sale. However, this suggests that the trader is actively managing risk. With Ethereum still under technical pressure, the market will be watching this ETH transfer closely to see if it precedes further distributions or is just a temporary correction within a broader long-term strategy.
Price maintains long-term support
Ethereum is trading near the $2,930 level on the weekly chart, consolidating after a sharp decline from the $4,800-$5,000 highs it set earlier in the cycle. Although prices remain well above long-term macro support, the recent structure reflects a clear loss of momentum. ETH has transitioned from a strong impulsive rally to a correction phase, with lower highs and increasing selling pressure in key resistance areas.
From a trend perspective, Ethereum is currently hovering around its medium- to long-term moving average. The loss of the faster weekly moving averages signaled the start of a correction, with prices now testing near the 200-week average, which has historically served as an important inflection point during major market transitions. This area now functions as a battleground between long-term buyers and sellers defending their previous interests.
Price trends in recent weeks suggest indecision rather than capitulation. A large bearish candle followed by a small candle indicates that the aggressive selling has slowed but buyers are yet to regain control. Trading volume supports this interpretation, with increased activity during the initial selling period and lower participation during the consolidation period.
Structurally, the $2,800-$3,000 range is important. Holding this zone will preserve Ethereum’s broader bullish market structure. A sustained breakdown below is likely to confirm a deeper corrective move, and stabilization could allow ETH to build ground before challenging higher resistance levels near $3,400 and $3,800.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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