Bitcoin red moon. Why September forms a crypto cycle

The red moon in Bitcoin is almost here, and as we approach September, is it inevitable that prices will drop? Let's take a look at some of the reasons why this nine months this year is historically bad for Bitcoin.

Why is September historically the red month of Bitcoin?

Since 2013, September has proven to be a challenging month for Bitcoin, with losses in eight of the last 11 years. That's because retail investors usually make profits after summer gatherings and cryptography to cover falling costs such as tuition fees and tax plans.

The Red Moon in Bitcoin may be something like a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders expect red candles, act more defensively and take the market even further down. The perspective here is important as most September pullbacks are modest.

This month usually marks a local bottom, but then Bitcoin has historically brought about a recovery, and even rebounds strongly to “up-to-bar” at large gatherings. For example, in October 2020, Bitcoin surged from around $10,800 at the beginning of the month to over $13,800 by the end, marking profits of over 27%.

August Summary: The Greatest of All Time and Whale Sighting

August 2025 was dramatic in any way. Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $124,533 on August 14, falling 11% to a low of around $110,000 just two weeks later.

Market value evaporated nearly $200 billion, and a single event caused a drop. This caused the biggest liquidation cascade, a previous dormant whales that sold around 24,000 btc, boosting spot prices below $109,000.

The nearly $900 million derivative position has been wiped out, with 90% bullish long, with $150 million in BTC and $320 million in ETH. Ethereum showed relative strength, and even with an 8% reduction, it remained above the 100-day moving average.

My weaknesses these days have not only been my skills and emotions. The market orderbooks for spots and derivatives remained thin, so major sales such as whale dumps were sufficient to amplify price volatility.

Meanwhile, on-chain data in late August showed a decrease in lukewarm disease activity and influx, further weakening bid support.

Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to be a headwind. With the US Federal Reserve's September policy focused, traders are priced both the risk of volatile movements and the possibility of new optimism when macro signals are preferred, such as rate reductions.

Preparation for September: Scenarios and Signals

Crypto Trader Cas Abbé outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin as we approach September. In his main “scope and repair” scenario (40% probability), Bitcoin is expected to trade sideways between $110K and $120,000 for most of the month, as excessive leverage decreases and institutional investors gradually accumulate. Such integration would create a healthier foundation for potential Q4 meetings.

In the “second flash” case (35% chance), when Bitcoin falls below $110k, a further wave of liquidation continues, pushing the price to a 100kk high and eliminating the remaining leverage position. Historically, these types of corrections often precede a strong bottom.

Conversely, the “Quick Reclaim” scenario (25% chance) assumes an institution that actively purchases, allowing BTC to quickly recover from the $117,000 to $118,000 range, causing earlier returns of bullish emotions.

Throughout September, Abbé suggests that traders closely monitor some chains and macro signals. In particular, options market activities leading up to the September 27th expiration date may provide valuable insight into positioning and emotions.

It has not yet been seen whether Bitcoin's red moon will turn green this year, but with thin liquidity, increased volatility, and buyers of institutions waiting on the wing, September may offer both risk and opportunity this year.