Francisco Rodrigues (always ET unless otherwise indicated)
The wind appears to be coming out of the sails of the crypto market. Bitcoin
The Coindesk 20 (CD20) index, a broader market measure, saw an ether (ETH) drop by 5.7% and 6% after posting the strongest monthly increase and XRP in three years
Lose more than 7%.
The tax ranges from 10% to 41% of imports from major trading partners, including Canada, the European Union and Japan, as some of President Donald Trump's tariffs begin to become even more effective as scheduled to commence on August 7th.
That led to the Asian stock markets in its worst week since April, spurring USD rally, sending over 100 dollar indexes for the first time since May.
Tariffs also raised the Federal Reserve's priority inflation measures, Core PCE, to 2.8% year-on-year in June. The increase has weakened hopes for a September rate cut. Polymet Traders have moved from a 56% chance of rate reduction to 38%. CME's FedWatch tool shows a 39% chance.
“For crypto, a loose financial position will be a major tailwind,” 21Shares strategist Matt Mena said in an email.
Non-farm pay data today can be decisive. The report is expected to create 110,000 jobs last month.
Options traders are already seeking protection from further declines.
“We're looking forward to seeing you in the future,” said Jake Ostrovskis, OTC trader at WinterMute. “ETH options until late August are particularly different, and positioning is completely bullish when balanced.”
If economic data points to higher rates for longer, traders can circumvent towards assets that benefit from stricter conditions. Stronger and higher rates could tweak investors towards stubcoins or transparent ETH-based safes that support the harvest given passing the Genius Act law. Keep alerts!
What to see
- Crypto
- August 1: Helium Network (HNT), currently running in Solana, has reduced its annual new token issuance to HNT 7.5 million after half of the event.
- August 1: Hong Kong's stablecoins ordinance comes into effect and a licensing system will be introduced to regulate stubcoins activities in cities.
- August 1: The new Bretton Woods Labs launches BTCD. It says it is the first fully Bitcoin-backed Stablecoin on the Elastos (ELA) mainnet, a decentralized blockchain protected by Bitcoin mining and overseen by the Elastos Foundation.
- August 4th: Solana Mobile will be delivered worldwide for Seeker Web3 mobile devices.
- August 15: Record the date of the next FTX distribution to the holders of the Class 5 customer qualifications, general unsecured and convenience claims for Class 6.
- August 18: Coinbase Derivatives launches Nano Sol and Nano XRP US Perpetual Style Futures.
- Macros
- August 1st, 8:30am: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release employment data for July.
- Non-farm payroll EST. 110k vs. 147K
- Unemployment rate EST. 4.2% vs. 4.1%
- Government salary is in advance. 73k
- Manufacturing salary EST. -3K vs. front. -7k
- August 1st, 9am: S&P Global Releases will release Brazil's July manufacturing and service data.
- Before manufacturing PMI. 48.3
- August 1st, 9:30am: S&P Global Release will release manufacturing and service data for Canada for July.
- Before manufacturing PMI. 45.6
- August 1st, 9:45am: S&P Global Leleases (final) July manufacturing and US service data
- Manufactured PMI EST. 49.5 vs. 52.9
- August 1, 10am: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release its US Services Sector data for July.
- It is a manufactured PMI. east. 49.5 vs. 49
- August 1st 10am: University of Michigan release (final) US consumer sentiment data for July.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment EST. 62 vs. 60.7
- August 1st 11am: S&P Global Release will release manufacturing and service data for Mexico for July.
- Before manufacturing PMI. 46.3
- August 1: Peru's National Institute of Statistics will release consumer price inflation data for July.
- Before moms inflation. 0.13%
- Around the inflation rate. 1.69%
- August 6th, 12:01am: 50% US tariffs will be enforced on most Brazilian imports announced in President Trump's July 30th executive order.
- August 7, 12:01am: The US mutual tariffs outlined in President Trump's July 31 executive order will be effective for a wide range of trading partners who have not secured transactions by August 1. These tariffs range from 15% to 41% depending on the country.
- August 1st, 8:30am: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release employment data for July.
- Revenue (Estimation based on fact set data)
- August 4: Semler Scientific (SMLR), Post Market, – $0.22
- August 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), in front of the market, $0.19
- August 7: Block (XYZ), Post Market, $0.67
- August 7: Crypto Mining (CIFR), former market
- August 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), Postmarket, $0.19
- August 7th: Coincheck (CNCK), Postmarket
- August 7: HUT 8 (HUT), pre-market – $0.08
- August 8: Terawulf (Wulf), former market, – $0.06
- August 11: Exod, Postmarket
- August 12th: Bitfarm (BITF), former market
- August 12th: Foldable (FLD), Post Market
- August 27: Nvidia (NVDA), Post Market, $1.00
Token Event
- Governance votes and phone calls
- Nearby protocols are voting for the possibility of reducing Near's inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approve the proposal that it will pass, and if so, it could be implemented by the second half of the third quarter. Voting will end on August 1st.
- Venus Dao is voting for a 12-month update at Chaos Labs for the deployment of the BNB chain at a cost of $400,000, focusing on expanding the risk Oracle system for real-time automatic risk parameter updates. Voting will end on August 1st.
- Combined DAO votes to select the next Security Service Provider (SSP). Representatives have chosen Chainsecurity & Certora and Cyfrin. Voting will end on August 5th.
- Unlock
- August 2: Ecena unlocks 0.64% of distribution supply worth $23.36 million.
- August 9: Unlocking 1.3% of distribution supply worth $12.26 million (IMX).
- August 12: APTOS unlocks 1.73% of distribution supply worth $47.95 million.
- August 15: An avalanche unlocking 0.39% of distribution supply worth $3,652 million.
- August 15: StarkNet (STRK) unlocks 3.53% of its distribution supply worth $1,442 million.
- August 15: SEI unlocks 0.96% of its circulation supply worth $15.78 million.
- Token launch
- August 5: Keeta (KTA) listed in Kraken.
meeting
Coindesk Policy & Regulation Conference (Formerly known as Cryptographic State) At a one-day boutique event held in Washington on September 10th, generals, compliance officers and regulatory executives will be able to meet with civil servants responsible for crypto law and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Please use Code CDB10 for 10% off registration until August 31st.
- August. 6-7: BlockChain.rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
- August 6th-10th: Rarebo (Las Vegas)
- August 7-8: Bitcoin++ (Latvia, Riga)
- August 9th-10th: Baltotic Honey Badger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
- August 9th-10th: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
- August 11th: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
- August 11th-13th: MATB 2025 (Intanbul)
- August 11th-17th: Ethereum NYC (New York)
- August 13th-14th: Cryptowinter '25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
- August 21st-22: Coinfest Asia 2025 (Indonesia, Bali)
Token talk
By Francisco Rodriguez
- According to NFTPricefloor, Cryptopunks, a dominant collection, is currently recovering the Impossible Token (NFT) market.
- According to Coingecko data, the NFTS market capitalization almost doubled to $6.4 billion in just a month.
- The assembly was led by a code plant that rose 33.3% over that period. Other collections such as Pudgy Penguins also helped.
- The increase in Cryptopunks accounted for nearly 30% of the total market capitalization of the NFT sector. In ETH terminology, the 52 ETH price is the best in over a year.
Positioning of derivatives
- The number of open contracts for CME Bitcoin Standard futures has dropped to 27,699, representing the lowest since April of 138,495 BTC.
- Capital flights could be an institution that prefers spot ETFs over futures and traders as dollar rally gathers speed.
- Open interest in ether futures has dipped from a recent peak of 41,636 to 32,903 contracts. The ether contract is sized at 50 ETH.
- BTC and ETH OI remained rising near record highs for the offshore permanent future, with funding rates receding below 5%, a sign of weakening bull sentiment.
- At Deribit, market sentiment is shifting towards ether, with lower cost insurance premiums than Bitcoin.
Market movements
- BTC fell 1.32% from 4pm on Thursday to $114,962.47 (24 hours: -2.92%)
- ETH is down 3.09% at $3,619.49 (24 hours: -5.94%)
- Coindesk 20 is down 3.26% at 3,764.26 (24 hours: -6.05%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.94%
- BTC's funding rate is 0.0026% (annual rate of 2.8448%) in terms of vinanence
- DXY is up 0.25% at 100.22
- Gold futures remain unchanged at $3,345.70
- Silver futures fell 0.67% to $36.47
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.66% at 40,799.60
- Hang Seng closed 1.07% at 24,507.81
- FTSE is down 0.40% at 9,096.56
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.36% at 5,319.92
- DJIA fell 0.74% on Thursday at 44,130.98
- S&P 500 closed 0.37% at 6,339.39
- The NASDAQ composite was not changed at 21,122.45
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.40% at 27,259.78
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.71% at 2,563.84
- The 10-year financial ratio in the US is up 3.6 bps at 4.396%
- E-Mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.94% at 6,314.25
- E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures fell 1.03% at 23,125.00
- The E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is down 0.91% at 43,900.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 61.98% (0.41%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03150 (-1.38%)
- Hash rate (7-day moving average): 904 EH/s
- Hashpris (spot): $57.21
- Total fee: 3.96 BTC/$468,378
- CME Futures Open Interest: 138,495 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 34.8 oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 9.85%
READ Fidelity launches Zero Fee Crypto Retirement Accounts exposed to Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin
Technical Analysis
- Daily charts of Ether-Bitcoin ratio show bearish divergence of RSI. This pattern is marked by indicator printing, which is detached from the price of the rise, suggesting a weakening of bullish momentum.
- In other words, ether could fall below Bitcoin in the next few days.
- The MACD histogram, an indicator that follows trends, has also become negative.
Crypto stocks
- Strategy (MSTR): $401.86 (+1.73%), with -4.2% closed at $385 in front of the market on Thursday
- Coinbase Global (Coin): $377.76 (+0.07%), closed at -11.15% at $335.65
- Circle (CRCL): $183.52 (-3.66%), closed at -5.19% at $174
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $28.41 (-1.68%), $26.15 at -7.97%
- Mara Holdings (Mara): $16.08 (-2.84%), $15.5 at -3.61%
- Riot Platforms (Riot): $13.41 (-0.81%), closed at -8.05% at $12.33
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $13.54 (+3.72%), closed at -4.21% at $12.97
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $11.37 (-0.44%), -3.25% closed at $11
- Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $25.26 (+2.23%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): $35.85 (-0.17%), $35.60 at -0.7%
- Exodus Movement (Exod): $30.84 (+6.05%), closed at -1.85% at $30.27
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): $18.81 (-3.83%), $17.66 at -6.11%
ETF Flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily Net Flow: -$114.8 million
- Cumulative net flow: $549.7 billion
- Total BTC holdings: 1.3 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $17 million
- Cumulative net flow: $96.6 billion
- Total ETH holdings: 573 million
Source: Farside Investors
One night flow
The chart of the day
USDT: Total chain-on-chain transfer amount. (GlassNode)
- The total amount of USDT transferred on-chain has risen to $52.9 billion, the highest since early 2022.
- GlassNode shows a slow and consistent recovery in Stablecoin speed and market activity.
- The 2021 Crypto Bull Market Peak was marked by sharp spikes in USDT speeds.
While you're asleep
- Donald Trump rekindles the world trade war with the Sweep Tax Regime (Financial Times): The 35% tariff on Canadian non-USMCA goods will begin on August 1, but the broader tariffs announced in Thursday's executive order will come into effect on August 7, allowing US customs to be implemented.
- Bitcoin, ether begins in August with a volatile memo once the Dollar Index exceeds 100. Yen hits 4 months before non-farm pay (Coindesk). Major cryptocurrencies saw volatile trading as the stronger dollar, following new tariffs, could exacerbate inflation and complicate the path to reducing Fed interest rates.
- Do traders do ether? The options market is currently at a higher risk of ETH than BTC (Coindesk). Delibit data shows that it marks a sentiment shift after weeks of institutional preference for the second largest cryptocurrency.
- El Salvador Scrap Presidential Duration Limits, Opens the door for another Bukere Term (Reuters): The bill passed in Parliament on Thursday allows for indefinite re-election, extends presidential terms to six years, eliminates spills, and shortens Bukell's current term to coordinate all elections in 2027.
- Goldman calls attention as the global credit spread hits its 2007 low (Bloomberg). The market has shown confidence, but the strategists advised to maintain hedging, warning investors that they may overlook risks such as mitigating growth, slowing down output rates, and uneven impacts from trade policies.
- Bitcoin holders can now obtain automatic yields via the $20 billion SolV protocol (Coindesk). Solv's BTC+ Vault offers 4.5% to 5.5% Bitcoin returns via staking, automation and manually selecting and managing holder holders of Defi lending and protocols.
With ether
