Bitcoin's price volatility has sunk to historic lows at its highest ever price, but QCP capital analysts have warned investors to “quietly watch out.”
“Volatility could be summer holidays, but we can still deliver fireworks in the third quarter and Q4,” the analyst wrote in a recent blog post.
The current low volatility is a sign that the market is priced in a scenario of tariff delays, fee cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee later this year, and interest rates that have maintained a fiscal deficit, analysts wrote.
“Whales, OGs and miners are mostly on the sidelines, but Bitcoin is only 2-3% below its all-time high,” they said. “This is supported by a stable influx from the ETF and the public corporate finance ministry.”
BlackRock's Ishares Bitcoin Trust, trading on Nasdaq under the IBIT ticker, has won nearly $53 billion inflows since its debut 18 months ago, reaching 700,306.7922 Bitcoin. It was the fastest growing exchange trade fund in the industry's 32-year history.
In other words, BlackRock holds 3.52% of the circulating supply of 19.8 million Bitcoin. Also, Bitget Wallet's Chief Marketing Officer Jamie Elkaleh said the company's Ishares Ethereum Trust owns 1.5% of all ETH.
“If ETF inflows continue, we can enter the early stages of squeezing structural supplies,” he said. “That means there is less ETH circulating in open markets, higher volatility and greater upward pressure on prices.”
QCP analysts also said the stock is “expanding the melt up rally.”
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 had been trading for $6,226.78 (up 3.6%) over the past month. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 4.2% over the same period. Both indexes have recently reached their all-time highs.
QCP analysts also said “credit spreads are the toughest they have since the March and April revisions.” Credit spread refers to the extra yields investors require to hold corporate bonds that are more risky than safer government debt. A particularly narrow spread is a sign of investors' trust, as they do not require much compensation for credit risk.
The true macro signal to monitor is whether President Donald Trump can enter into more trade deals before his new August 1 deadline. Risk assets like Bitcoin were largely at new tariff deadlines, QCP wrote, writing that they began to expect dull tariff rhetoric without action.
“If Trump decides to follow, the impact will be practically counter-growth,” analysts said. “It marks a true test of global risk resilience.”
