Although Bitcoin and gold have posted nearly identical two-year returns, their volatilities, paths, and risk profiles for long-term store-of-value investors are vastly different.
summary
- Data shows that despite fundamentally different price paths, Bitcoin and gold have converged to roughly the same two-year rate of return.
- While gold swung wildly early with a sharp rally and a big pullback, Bitcoin rose relatively smoothly as momentum gained late.
- This graph highlights how both assets rewarded patient holders, even as gold maintained its role as a safe haven and Bitcoin remained a high-beta speculative store of value.
Bitcoin and gold have delivered essentially the same returns over the past two years, despite following markedly different price trajectories.
However, year-to-date, gold has appreciated significantly against Bitcoin, rising 79% against the original cryptocurrency in 2025.
Gold will show strength against Bitcoin in 2025, but 2-year chart shows they are on par
A chart tracking percentage performance through late 2025 shows that both assets have converged to roughly the same return level, but the paths each took were very different in terms of volatility and timing.
According to the data, gold showed high volatility at the beginning of the two-year period, with a sharp rise in price followed by a significant decline. The precious metal experienced an extended period of violent movement before stabilizing around its final return level.
By comparison, the chart shows that Bitcoin has had a more stable rise. Although cryptocurrencies experienced drawdowns, the overall trajectory seemed smoother, especially in the later stages when momentum consistently increased towards the same bottom line zone as gold.
Is it too soon for Peter Schiff to take a victory lap with X?
If tech stocks go up but Bitcoin doesn't go up, and gold and silver go up but Bitcoin doesn't go up, when will it go up?The answer is “no.” Bitcoin trading has ended. If Bitcoin doesn't go up, it has no choice but to go down. If HODLers are lucky, they won't die a slow death.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 23, 2025
This comparison highlights the differences in volatility patterns between two assets classified as stores of value. While gold has historically played a role in preserving purchasing power during times of economic turmoil, Bitcoin is often characterized as a more speculative investment.
According to Schiff, Bitcoin's price relative to tech stocks shows concerns about the cryptocurrency. However, similar end results suggest that both assets rewarded holders who maintained their positions throughout the two-year period, despite experiencing different price movement patterns.
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