Veteran trader Peter Brandt on Thursday laid out a much slower timetable for Bitcoin's next big rally, saying it could be around the third quarter of 2029 before Bitcoin reaches $200,000.
According to a post on X, Brandt remains a long-term supporter of Bitcoin, but warns that a rise to $200,000 will take time.
A sharp decline after the October peak?
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5th. It has since fallen more than 25%, wiping out about $710 billion in market value.
According to Coingecko data, the token was trading at $83,500 at one point, but fell to $82,650 as the market moved. Prices have been rising and falling again, leaving many traders worried about timing and risk.
Full disclosure everyone.
Of my largest Bitcoin position to date, I still own 40% and the price is 1/20th of Saylor's average purchase price.
I'm a long-term bull on Bitcoin. This dumping is the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s next bull run should be around $200,000. that…— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 21, 2025
Brandt referenced past product patterns to get his point across. He compared Bitcoin's behavior to the soybean market of the 1970s, which saw rapid gains and then sharp declines when supply exceeded demand. In that episode, Brandt reminded his followers that soybeans were down about 50% after their peak.
Technical signals turn bearish
Meanwhile, market analysis firm CryptoQuant warned of a pullback as the most bearish phase of the current bull market since it began in January 2023.
The company’s Bullscore index fell to 20 out of 100 last week, a level that indicates weak spot demand, negative price momentum, and declining stablecoin liquidity.
The platform also noted that Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average, a technical mark that held throughout the early correction of this cycle.
Still, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young-joo recently suggested that the market may not have officially entered bearish territory, illustrating how different views and interpretations can be.
Institutional sales add pressure
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriol Investments, warned of unusually high institutional selling, saying, “We have never seen institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase's volume in history.”
Analysts say this trend has made this reset even deeper than previous pullbacks during the same rally.
Never before in its history has Bitcoin seen such large institutional sell-offs as a percentage of Coinbase trading volume. pic.twitter.com/YzSzpGQmBN
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) November 21, 2025
A veteran trader's careful timeline
Brandt's outlook stands in contrast to more optimistic voices from the crypto industry. The report revealed that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and market veteran Tom Lee were among those who reiterated their hopes for $200,000 before the end of the year.
Some people consider pullbacks healthy
Despite Bitcoin's current downturn, Brandt said the recent fire sale was beneficial. He claimed that by cleansing now, you can get rid of excess and set up more powerful moves later.
Other popular numbers point to earlier goals, with some predicting $200,000 by the end of the year, and several, including ARK Invest's Cathie Wood and Coinbase head Brian Armstrong, predicting $1 million by 2030.
Other analysts pointed to a historical pattern of painful corrections followed by new gains, but added that the timing of the reversal was difficult.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
editing process for is focused on providing thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We adhere to strict sourcing standards, and each page is carefully reviewed by our team of top technology experts and experienced editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of your content to your readers.
