Bitcoin surprised almost everyone in 2025, but not in the way many top banks, asset managers, and crypto influencers expected.
Bitcoin rose to an all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025 before undergoing a sharp reversal. As of this writing, BTC is trading around $86,784, down over 31% from its peak.
This decline revealed a clear gap between bold price predictions and actual market performance.
$250,000 Bitcoin prediction that didn't come true
Several prominent figures have predicted that Bitcoin will skyrocket to $250,000 in 2025. None of these demands were realized.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, said Bitcoin could reach $250,000 if the U.S. Federal Reserve were to move aggressively toward printing money. Although the Fed delayed some of its tightening measures, the massive liquidity surge that Hayes had predicted did not materialize.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” has repeatedly asserted that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 and warned of the collapse of the global financial system. Despite rising debt and economic stress, the dramatic crisis he predicted did not materialize, and instead Bitcoin went through a familiar boom-and-bust cycle.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee also joined the $250,000 camp, citing improved regulation, strong demand and improved liquidity. Bitcoin skyrocketed, but macro uncertainty, volatility, and significant declines prevented the price from sustaining high levels.
$200,000 goal from major institution misses the mark
The most widely discussed Bitcoin predictions, including calls from major financial institutions, were centered around $200,000.
Standard Chartered, a global bank with approximately $850 billion in assets under management, predicted that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at the bank, pointed to ETF inflows, institutional adoption and a shift away from U.S. Treasuries. Despite massive inflows and growing corporate interest, Bitcoin never came close to reaching that level.
Bitwise also stuck to its $200,000 target and claimed that even small allocations from global asset managers could send hundreds of billions of dollars into Bitcoin. Inflows into ETFs did increase, but they weren't large or persistent enough to support Bitwise's price anywhere near what we expected.
Midrange bets also fail
Some companies took a more pragmatic approach, but still overestimated Bitcoin's upside. Matrixport predicted that Bitcoin would reach $160,000 in 2025, a lower target than many of its peers. Still, Bitcoin was unable to maintain its level as it repeatedly fell after strong gains.
However, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in 2025, confirming its long-term relevance. But the year also sent a clear message that a strong narrative does not guarantee a linear increase in prices.
ETF demand, institutional interest, and adoption all increased, but rallies were repeatedly disrupted by macro risk, leverage, and sudden declines.
Related: BlackRock names Bitcoin ETF as top investment theme for 2025
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