BlackRock’s $46.9M ETH purchase brings support into focus

Ethereum remains near critical support levels as on-chain data reveals massive currency outflows, suggesting a cautious but potentially bullish setup. The token is trading around $3,715, with traders monitoring whether new institutional buying, led by BlackRock's $46.9 million accumulation, marks a turning point in the ongoing correction.

Market structure reflects continued downward pressure

Ethereum continues to trade with bearish momentum after failing to regain strength above the $3,943 mark, which coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The price remains below the 20-50 EMA cluster around $3,950-4,100, confirming the presence of strong selling pressure.

Importantly, the 20 EMA is still below the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, maintaining a bearish trend in the short term. The next major support is located near $3,750, which coincides with the 0.236 Fibonacci level. A break below this level could head towards the $3,620-$3,440 liquidity zone.

Additionally, the $3,439 level remains an important horizontal demand zone and represents the structural low formed in June. On the upside, Ethereum faces resistance at $3,943, followed by a dense supply area between $4,066 and $4,162 where the 50 EMA and 100 EMA intersect. A clean break above $4,254 would provide the first strong sign of a trend reversal.

Related: Shiba Inu Price Prediction: SHIB falls as key support faces new selling pressure

Derivatives and organized activity show growing trust

Ethereum’s open interest soared to $45.57 billion as of October 17, reflecting increased participation from institutional investors. This increase in leveraged positions indicates that traders are preparing for the next big price move.

Additionally, open interest has nearly doubled since mid-year, suggesting confidence among both long and short participants. This increase reflects the stabilization in price seen around $3,896, reinforcing a potential setup for increased volatility if the price direction is confirmed.

Exchange flow shows accumulation behavior

According to recent data, the exchange has seen a net outflow of $76.83 million, and the exchange's supply continues to trend downward. While selling pressure remains, sustained outflows often reflect accumulation by long-term holders.

As a result, this pattern could tighten the available supply of Ethereum, paving the way for a sharp recovery when demand increases. While previous inflow surges marked temporary highs, current data shows consolidation rather than capitulation.

Related: Bitcoin price prediction: BlackRock triggers $1 billion sell-off, BTC falls

Technical outlook for Ethereum (ETH/USD)

As Ethereum navigates the correction structure heading into late October, key levels remain clearly defined.

• Top level: The immediate hurdles are $3,943 (0.382 Fib retracement) and $4,066-4,162 (50-100 EMA cluster). A break above these could extend to $4,254 (0.618 fib), leaving $4,476 of room in a broader recovery.
• Lower price level: $3,750 (Fib 0.236) acts as short-term support, and then $3,620 to $3,440 is the next liquidity and demand zone. A clear breakdown below $3,700 could reveal these deeper levels.
• Upper limit of resistance: The $4,100 zone remains a key level for reversing the medium-term bullish structure as it coincides with the EMA confluence and previous rejection area.

The technical structure suggests that ETH is solidly within a bearish continuation pattern with lower highs forming below dynamic resistance. Volatility remains compressed, indicating that a definitive breakout could extend momentum in either direction.

Will Ethereum hold the $3,750 zone?

Ethereum’s near-term trajectory will depend on whether buyers can sustain support above $3,750 and absorb continued selling pressure. If the price maintains this base and recovers between $3,950 and $4,100, it could trigger a recovery towards $4,254 and above. Conversely, if it fails to sustain above $3,700, the correction could widen towards $3,440.

Related: Dogecoin price prediction: Musk's tweet reignites hype, but resistance continues