Bitcoin prices are showing a cautious recovery as traders react to renewed optimism from both macroeconomic trends and technical signals. After retreating from early October highs near $126,000, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) found stability around $100,000 before rebounding towards $111,000. This recovery coincides with hopes for a resumption of US-China dialogue and increased speculative activity across futures markets.
Prices remain strong above key levels
Bitcoin's 4-hour chart reflects a rebound following a sharp correction that saw the cryptocurrency recover about 62% of its previous bull run. The price then retraced the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $110,580, supported by fresh buying near $106,000. This region remains important to maintain momentum as buyers aim to move above the 100EMA and 200EMA cluster between $113,000 and $113,500.
BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
Importantly, a break above this zone could shift sentiment towards a stronger bullish continuation, paving the way for $116,000 and $120,000. However, failure to sustain support above $106,000 could invite fresh selling pressure and push the price back towards $100,000.
In addition to the technical recovery, market activity suggests that traders are gradually regaining confidence. Open interest in Bitcoin futures increased to $69.13 billion on October 24, one of the highest levels this quarter. This growth indicates increased participation and sustained leverage, often preceding large price movements.
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Increase in open interest suggests market confidence
The consistent increase in open interest since mid-August highlights strengthening market sentiment. Traders appear to be building long positions as Bitcoin stabilizes above $110,000. Additionally, liquidity in derivatives markets has improved, suggesting investors are anticipating future volatility.
If open interest remains above $65 billion, it could confirm solid momentum and a potential breakout of the current consolidation range. Therefore, this indicator is consistent with historical patterns seen during previous recovery cycles and could serve as a leading indicator of Bitcoin's next major directional move.
New inflows reflect growing investor optimism
Additionally, on-chain data shows that inflows are improving after months of outflows. As of October 24, Bitcoin had recorded net inflows of $40.64 million, indicating new accumulation near current levels. A previous surge in outflows of more than $600 million coincided with a decline in prices earlier this year, but the recent reversal signals a shift toward holding behavior.
The timing of the influx coincides with increased optimism following confirmation that President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on October 30. The announcement boosted sentiment across global markets, with traders hoping for an easing of trade tensions. The incident comes after the United States imposed steep tariffs on imports from China earlier this month, sparking volatility across risk assets.
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Bitcoin price technical outlook: key levels heading into November
- Top level: $113,150 (0.5 Fib) remains the first major resistance level and coincides with the 100-EMA. A break above this zone could pave the way to $116,243 (0.618 Fib) and $120,644 (0.786 Fib). If momentum persists above $120,000, the previous cycle high could be pushed back to around $126,000.
- Lower price level: $110,580 (0.382 filib) acts as short-term support, followed by $106,235 (0.236 filib). A break below $106,000 could lead to a deeper correction towards the previous structurally low and important psychological barrier of $100,052.
- Upper limit of resistance: The $113,000 to $113,500 area has a cluster of 100 and 200 EMAs that form an important ceiling to confirm medium-term bullish momentum.
Bitcoin’s structure shows a consolidation between $106,000 and $113,000 after a sharp retracement from $126,000. The short-term EMA (20/50) is starting to curve upwards, showing signs of an early recovery, but the overall trend is still below the higher moving average.
Will Bitcoin be able to maintain its position?
Bitcoin’s outlook in late October and early November will depend on whether buyers can maintain control above $110,000. A sustained close above $113,150 would confirm a short-term reversal and could lead to a bullish continuation towards $120,000. However, losing the $106,000 support would invalidate this setup and expose BTC to another test of the $100,000 base.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a significant consolidation zone. An increase in open interest of over $69 billion and new capital inflows suggests growing market confidence, but definitive confirmation is still needed for the price to break out of the 100 EMA and 200 EMA range. Traders continue to watch for increased volatility as global market sentiment improves ahead of a meeting between President Trump and President Xi later this month.
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