Bull or bear? Next $106,000 retest could decide Bitcoin's fate

Bitcoin treated $106,400 as a pivot for the entire current cycle, acting as both resistance and support.

Price repeatedly clustered around the level, cleared the level on retests, and expanded towards the next channel band, but below that level often required a repair phase before moving forward.

My chart below shows the price channel that has had the most impact on Bitcoin since the beginning of 2024, with $106,400 highlighted as a solid yellow line.

In mid-December 2024, the price breached $106,000 for the first time after rising steadily from the sub-$100,000 region. After clearing this level, the price approached $107,800, but failed the retest of $106,400 and fell to the mid-$90,000s.

A similar pattern with more back-and-fills occurred in late January 2025. Bitcoin hit $106,400 from the bottom, but then stalled. The follow-through saw the intraday price rise to the $108,300 range, but it once again failed the retest.

Despite the noise within the channel grid, the $106,400 inflection point organized the move and the market checked the level repeatedly before moving lower. This line is useful for risk management because this behavior is consistent over the week.

By late May 2025, the relationship had reversed. Price tested $106,400 from the bottom twice, then from the top two more times, and then used this level as support several more times.

The rebound rose to $111,900 and $110,300, but the momentum lost on the sixth retest and further decline began.

During this period, $106,400 moved like a floor. Sellers could not push the next lower band in size as long as the closing price was above it. When that floor finally collapsed by the end of the month, recovery would take even longer, reinforcing the idea that losing the pivot would change the tempo.

June 2025 once again showed support and resistance features.

After falling below this level in mid-month and then being rejected four more times (one intraday breakout), Bitcoin finally regained $106,400 at the end of the month, holding multiple intraday highs and rising to $108,300 and $109,400.

The response after each retest is orderly, which is often the case when widely noted pivots are respected. Traders who were waiting for confirmation on the line had an explicit void if the price fell below $106,400, and a clear target in the upper bands if it held.

This sent Bitcoin into price discovery territory, eventually reaching a cycle high of $126,000. The $106,400 level was not tested again until October 10, when President Trump's $19 billion in trade tariffs disappeared.

The sequence from October to early November 2025 shows the other side.

A decisive drop from higher levels took it to $106,400 before a sharp rebound towards $115,000. Bitcoin has attempted to maintain its pivot several times, and at the time of writing is on its eighth attempt.

So far, each time the price has touched $126,000 and tested $106,400, the price has quickly rebounded towards $110,000 and $115,000.

Ominously, Bitcoin has never held $106,400 after eight retests.

These iterative interactions are important because they compress complex sets of variables into a single reference.

$106,400 is located in the middle of the current channel pack on the displayed framework, meaning it is located near the fair value axis where both buyers and sellers find liquidity.

If the price accepts above this level, the path of least resistance will move to the next upper cluster. When a price is rejected or loses its level, the market often has to restructure below participants before buyers regain control.

The overall screenshot pattern can be summarized as follows:

The strategy is simple for traders who map decisions to levels.

Once the price is confirmed on retest above $106,400, attention naturally shifts to the next overhead cluster around $107,800, $108,300, $109,400, and $110,500. These clusters line up with the yellow dashed rungs of the visible ladder.

Failure to break out of the pivot will return focus to the downside stacks around $105,500, $104,500, and $103,800, where the market has repeatedly found liquidity during breakdowns.

This framework does not predict direction. Defines areas where execution quality tends to improve and where invalidation is clear.

This level also helps reconcile conflicting signals from momentum and funds.

In periods where momentum changes but the price is still above $106,400, the path to higher bands often remains open as long as the pivot holds.

During periods where derivatives positioning appears congested but the market is unable to regain its level, the burden of proof remains on the buyer until acceptance returns. The result is a pragmatic approach to managing exposure without over-fitting short-term metrics.

None of these assign any special status to a single number beyond its repeated use in the current structure. Markets evolve and pivots shift as distribution changes.

However, the channels on the chart indicate intraday support and resistance levels that have been around for almost two years now.

The $106,400 value lies in the tape you return to again and again, the reactions that form around it, and the clarity it provides to plan your next trade.

Therefore, $106,400 appears to be acting as a balance point for the cycle and price continues to treat it well.